The Group 1 Tancred Stakes is the feature race of the day however there is plenty of quality racing taking place at Rosehill on Saturday.
We’ve previewed the entire nine race card and you can find our 2020 Tancred Stakes Day Tips & Preview here.
Condor has been racing consistently at this level so far this prep and is never far away in his races. He made the step up to Group 3 level last time out at Newcastle and although he found a couple better, he ran extremely well. He is a huge gelding which is an advantage when he gets out into full stride late in his races and I think he represents good value at the $8.50 at publish.
This is a very tricky race between the young ones with plenty of live chances. I’m happy to be with the kiwi colt Not An Option at the top of the weights. He is already a Group 2 winner in New Zealand and I was really impressed by the way he worked through the line in his most recent trial. That suggested to me that he is ready for the 1400m after a little freshen up in this contest and we are getting each way odds.
# With the scratching of Not An Option I am happy to be with the Hawkes trained I Am Swerving to break through for a maiden win at his third start. #
Tim Clark rode the favourite in this race, Quick Thinker, into third behind the two best three year old fillies in the country in Probabeel and Funstar in the Phar Lap Stakes. I can’t find a reason that he would have been sacked so It’s my conclusion that he has chosen to ride Pride Of Adelaide in this race. Who’d blame him?! The son of Cox Plate winner Adelaide has won his last two by a combined 10+ lengths and I’m happy to gamble he measures up to this level at his current odds.
Aliferous is a mare with a fair amount of upside and she gets into this race well in the weights. She carries a lot of residual fitness from a long campaign and she is at her best at the 2000m in my opinion. She won the Group 3 Adrian Knox Stakes this time last year before going on to run fourth behind Verry Elleegant in the Oaks and she has been ticking over nicely in her three runs since a let up. There are a couple at the top of the weights that will be tough to beat but I recommend a small each way play at the $7.50 available right now.
I am really keen to see the return of Kementari but he won’t be getting my money first up with the 60kg on his back. The form around Villami is hard to ignore, as was her scintillating win first up in the Listed Fireball Stakes at Randwick. She led throughout that day in impressive fashion and California Zimbol, who ran third in that race, has gone on to win at Listed level since. She was narrowly beaten by Loving Gaby in the Champagne Stakes at The Valley in the Spring and we know what that filly has gone on to achieve. She makes her own luck on the speed and we know how good Tim Clark is at judging the speed in front.
It’s impossible to go past the 2019 Australian Oaks winner Verry Elleegant in the feature race of the day. She has found one better at her past two runs at Group 1 level however she finds a much easier field in the Tancred Stakes. She is such a versatile mare and her talent is matched only by her toughness at the end of races. She is proven over the trip, on all surfaces and she really does look bomb proof. She is short enough now however I encourage punters to double her up with my tip in the next race to get some value.
Funstar was defeated by Probabeel in the Surround Stakes first-up however the kiwi filly had the fitness edge at that stage in her prep. With the extra distance in the Phar Lap Stakes and the benefit of a run under her belt, Funstar showed her clear class edge over her long time rival. There are some talented fillies on the rise that are worth including in your multiples such as Fascino, Asiago, Subpoenaed and Game Of Thorns however I think Funstar is your winner.
There are a plethora of horses that are capable of winning this race so if you like one, don’t let me stop you from backing it! Many of these mares are coming out of the Coolmore Classic where they ran into a very heavy track and I would be keen to forgive that run for a lot of them. I also think the run may have taken a bit out of them in those conditions and I’ve steered clear of that form. Positive Peace is a very talented young mare who has won seven of her 16 career race starts including her last four in a row by big margins. Granted, this is a steep step up in class, however I’m willing to gamble she can more than compete especially at the $11 currently available at time of publish.
Cascadian has had a tough time of it this prep so far. After being involved in a bumping dual with Imaging at Randwick, he was trapped for room again at a vital stage at Rosehill last start. The chestnut gelding has a tricky barrier to contend with this time, however he is a horse that has a fair amount of ability and he is going far better than his form suggests on paper. I think the $6.00 is very much overs and he can finish our day on a winning note.