Saturday, February 29

Miami Heat vs Dallas Mavericks, 12 pm
Heat -2

I like Miami in this spot, listed as early 2-point favourites in this one. This line is subject to change however, especially with Luka Doncic questionable.

The Heat just haven’t been good at all lately, winning and covering just 3 times in their last 10. That said, I think a lot of this has been due to their recent road-heavy schedule.

They’re still one of the best home teams in the NBA, going 23-4 straight up and 18-8-1 ATS on the season. They also have most of their full complement heading into this one, with only Leonard and Herro slated to miss.

Miami have a bunch of talented perimeter defenders that can cause problems for Doncic, if he does play. Given how well Adebayo has played this season, I also see him negating Porzingis here.

All in all, Miami is probably the slightly better of these two sides. Combine that with an elite home court advantage and this 2-point line is just too small.

LA Clippers vs Denver Nuggets, 2:30 pm
Clippers -5.5

I had success backing the Clippers last time out and can really see this team making a run here. They’re currently 5.5-point favourites in this one and I like their chances of covering.

While this Denver team is quite talented overall, they have one major weakness, their inability to contain top-tier wing players. Unfortunately, the Clippers have two of these guys, which results in a very tough matchup for Denver.

They just have no-one that can realistically match up with Kawhi or PG on either end of the floor. Their roster is weaker as a result of the trade deadline, while the Clippers look to be as strong as ever.

LA have one of the best home records in the NBA, having gone an impressive 23-6 so far. Denver are a decent 17-11 on the road, but they aren’t the same team away from the altitude. With this line currently at 5.5, I think the Clippers are strong value.