The Pistons are one of the toughest teams in the NBA to back right now, yet that’s part of the reason why I’m backing them here. All the action is coming in on Denver right now and I can see the +2.5 improving before tip-off.
Having lost each of their last 5 games by double digits, one could argue the Pistons are at their nadir in value. The Nuggets are a decent 7-3 in their last 10, although they’ll be without Millsap, Murray, and Porter here.
Denver aren’t quite as good on the road, although 15-9 is still a fairly impressive mark. They managed a win away at Milwaukee last time out, meaning this has all the makings of a letdown game.
This is their third game in four nights and they’re playing at a very unfamiliar early time zone. The situational spot is just poor for Denver here, so I’ll take the 2.5 with Detroit.
The Bucks have been the best team in the NBA thus far, but I think this line is a bit inflated. Phoenix are much better on the road than they are at home, having gone 14-8 ATS thus far.
Milwaukee have also been battling a few key injuries, with George Hill out and Giannis and DiVincenzo both day-to-day. Phoenix enter this clash essentially injury free, with Saric the only rotation player expected to miss.
Both of these sides have only played twice in the last week, so I can’t see fatigue being a major issue here. 75% of the early money has also come in on Milwaukee, so taking Phoenix is solid as a contrarian play.
Ultimately, Phoenix’s decent road form make them good value as heavy underdogs here. They’re unlikely to win, but they’ve got a good shot at keeping it under 13.