I like the Raptors at home in this one, currently laying a relatively modest 5 points. They’ve got a ton of advantages here, and I’d expect them to comfortably win and cover.
First and foremost, they’ve been one of the best home sides in the NBA this season. They’ve gone 22-7 at the ACC, compared to just 14-13 on the road for Indiana.
Toronto also enter this clash on a very hot streak, winning 9 of their last 10 and covering the spread in 6 of those. Indiana have struggled in comparison, winning just 3 and covering only 4 times over that same period.
The Raptors also look fairly healthy headed into this clash, with only Marc Gasol entering as an injury doubt. Indiana will likely be without Victor Oladipo here, which would really impact their offensive firepower. It’s a great spot for Toronto and I think they’ll take full advantage.
I like the Wolves in this one, currently getting a fairly generous 12.5 points. They’ve been on an atrocious run of form, but I think this has undervalued them in the market.
They’ve only won and covered once out of their last 10 games, compared to a respectable 6-4 mark for Denver. I don’t see how this can get much worse, meaning that they’re likely at their nadir in value.
They look to be a better and faster offensive team of late, which could really pay dividends in the altitude. KAT has performed well against Jokic throughout his career, a trend I can see continuing here.
Denver should win this relatively comfortably, but the 12.5 points gives plenty of room for a backdoor cover. I think Minnesota’s offence does just enough here that they’re good value plus the points.