It can’t be understated just how impressive Novak’s run to the Final has been. He’s dropped just one set all tournament and looked in complete control in every match. I think he’s comfortably the better player and like him -1.5 sets here.
Thiem has also done a remarkable job, but just hasn’t been on the same level as Novak thus far. Wins over Monfils, Nadal, and Zverev are all impressive, although he could’ve easily lost in round 2 to Alex Bolt.
Djokovic has established himself as the king of Melbourne Park, making it to the Aus Open Final 7 times and winning every single one of those. He is 16-9 overall in grand slam finals, so the moment definitely won’t be too big for him here.
Thiem, on the other hand, has played in only 2 grand slam finals previously. Known primarily as a clay-courter, this is the first time he’s advanced this far anywhere but Roland Garros. He was just 10-6 at the Aus Open prior to this year and his game doesn’t appear to be geared for hard courts.
Novak also has a huge rest advantage here, getting an extra day to prepare and spending significantly less time on court. This could prove to be a huge factor and I can see Thiem’s head dropping if he loses the first set.
Overall, Novak is the more talented and experienced player, who happens to have a rest and motivational advantage. I think he wins this comfortably, and I can’t see anything more than 4 sets.