Group 1 racing returns to Headquarters on Saturday with the running of the Black Caviar Lightning Stakes and we are licking our lips at the sight of some very good fields.
The great mare herself, Black Caviar, will be in attendance as well as plenty of punters and we are here to give them a leg up.
Our full preview of 2020 Black Caviar Lightning Stakes Day, as well as our tips, can be found here.
Over Exposure raced well on his Summer trip up to Queensland without winning, however, this is a genuine drop in class for the five-year-old gelding. Luke Currie will steer from barrier 4 and I am confident we can start our day with a nice little win.
Thousand Wishes has stung the punters twice in a row now in this grade of racing, however, she has been very game in defeat and I think it’s a matter of time before she progresses through this grade. She has proven that she can handle the soft ground which may come into play with showers expected over Flemington on Friday and Saturday and she could go close again in a very open race.
It’s hard to ignore the Hanseatic form as he has dominated the Neds Blue Diamond Stakes lead-in races and River Night was beaten only 1.9 lengths by the star colt back in November. That time over the 1000m, even back in November, is around 1.5 seconds faster than Mildred ran when she won last start at Caulfield. Times don’t lie in these short course races and it is a great guide with the young ones who don’t have a lot of form lines. The $8.00 at time of publish seems overs to me and she is worth an each-way bet.
Big Sure is a horse with a huge amount of upside and he has been ticking along nicely so far this prep. He is ready to peak fourth up and he’ll appreciate getting out to 2000m for the first time this prep. He was beaten only 2.4 lengths behind a horse that I have quite a high opinion of in Just Benjamin and he should get a gun run in transit from barrier two with Craig Williams on top.
The New Zealand gelding Catalyst looks a special horse to my eye and he makes the trip over the Tasman to tackle the Aussie three-year-olds for the first time. He has won six of his seven-race starts to date and his last start win at Ellerslie was something special. He won’t be able to miss the jump and give the likes of Alligator Blood a head start, however, if he shows the turn of foot that he is capable of, anything is possible for the exciting prospect.
Golden Halo returned to the races at Caulfield with a very nice effort behind News Girl where she was beaten under two lengths. She showed a very nice turn of foot and I’m happy to see them get her out to 1200m second up. James Winks will steer from barrier 9 and with even luck in running I think she can storm over the top of quite a big field.
Nature Strip went to another level in the Spring, however, I can’t possibly touch him at $1.40! Redzel met Nature Strip first up in the Group 3 Concorde Stakes to kick start his Spring campaign beating him by 2.7 lengths, and although I do think Nature Strip maps perfectly down the Flemington straight, there is far more value for the champ. Redzel does his best racing fresh (10:5-4-0) and his chances only improve if the predicted rain falls on Friday and Saturday. The $7.50 is good enough value for me for a horse that has been so consistent over the years.
There are a few at the top of the weights that have the runs on the board in a tougher grade of racing than Katalin, however she looks a very promising young filly. She smashed her rivals, and the clock, when scoring a 3.8 length win at Newcastle last time out and she is yet to taste defeat from her two race starts. I’m keen to see her get out beyond 1400m and she does look like she has too much class for this field.
Star Missile won both his starts in a very short little prep in October and November and the lightly raced gelding has plenty of ability. This is a sharp rise in grade and a good test first up, however he has a trial leading in and I think the grey horse can measure up in a tricky race to end the day.