I’m taking the #17 seed Kerber to defeat journeywoman Giorgi at solid odds of $1.65. The matchup really favours her here and I expect her dominant return game to really shine.
A ranking of #17 isn’t indicative of the immense talent this 3-time grand slam champion has. She is now 31-11 in her career at the Aus Open and hasn’t looked like dropping a set thus far.
Giorgi typically struggles on hard courts, entering this Aus Open with a 6-7 record and going an even worse 5-8 at the US Open. She has had two impressive wins thus far, although neither opponent has Kerber’s quality.
She has served just 2 aces compared to 6 double faults thus far, while Kerber has already broken serve 12 times in 2 matches. I just don’t see Giorgi’s serve holding up over 3 sets and expect Kerber’s elite striking to prove the difference.
Despite entering this clash as the #11 seed, Goffin finds himself as a sizeable underdog to the #17 seed Rublev. Rublev probably has a slight edge on hard courts, but I think this should be closer to even odds.
I like Goffin getting the 3.5-game head start here and think he has a definite chance of winning this match outright. He is now 13-6 at the Aus Open all time, reaching the Quarters back in 2017.
Rublev is a relative newcomer and hasn’t advanced past the 3rd round of the Aus Open previously. He has had a rather easy route to this point, taking care of two unheralded players thus far.
Goffin is a definite step up in opponent quality and I don’t see him overwhelming big Dave with his power here. It was a poor showing in round 2 from Goffin, but I think that has a lot to do with his inflated price here. I’m chalking that up as one bad match and think that 3.5 games is great value in what should be a close one.
Medvedev and Nadal are the two biggest favourites of the day and probably as close to locks as you can get at this point. Kyrgios is essentially a better version of the same player as Khachanov and will emerge victorious if he plays to his level. Including him really boosts the price here and makes this a solid play at $1.68.