Let’s start with the uncomfortable yet obvious fact, Ash Barty clearly choked last time out. She is a much more talented tennis player than Kenin, as is Muguruza in this matchup.
Grand Slam success is nothing new for the Spaniard, who has previously won both Roland Garros and Wimbledon. Her career record is now 21-7 at the Aus Open, which is definitely solid for a clay courter.
Her path to reach this point has been incredibly impressive, knocking off four straight seeds in straight sets. This included 3 top 10 opponents in Svitolina, Bertens, and Halep.
Kenin just doesn’t have the same track record and experience as her opponent here. Barty was the lone seeded player that she beat, in two sets that really could’ve gone either way.
This is also her first time reaching the second week of a major, previously having a below .500 record for her career. Ultimately, I think Muguruza’s elite return game, experience, and proven track record help her get the win here.