Barty has a fantastic opportunity here to make the final of her home slam. She is the better and more experienced of these two players and I’d expect a comfortable win here.
It hasn’t been an easy road to get here, dropping a few sets and having a tough Quarter Final against Petra Kvitova. Her return game has been splendid all tournament, which really bodes well for her here.
All in all, Sofia Kenin has had one of the easier roads to the semis in recent memory. She has not faced one seeded player thus far and got a walkover in the 4th round.
Barty is a huge step up in opponent quality and I’m not sure she can match her here. She was just 12-11 in grand slams prior to this, having never reached the second week before.
Ultimately, I think Barty’s edge in the return game gets her the win here. Her inconsistency means the straight up win is a better bet than 2-0.
It’s been under-the-radar just how good Novak has been in this tournament. He dropped just one set in the first round and has essentially been flawless since.
His last two performances were especially good, dominating seeds in Schwartzman and Raonic. His return game has been on point of late, getting a whopping 16 break point opportunities against Raonic last time out.
Federer, in contrast, has struggled mightily to reach this point. He was taken to 5 sets by Johnny Millman and even dropped a set against Fucsovics.
Not to mention he should’ve lost against Sandgren last time out, having to save 7 match points. He appeared to pick up an injury in that match, the effects of which will likely linger here.
These two played a close one in the Wimbledon Final, with Novak just edging it in the 5th. The hardcourt is a much better surface for Novak and I’d be shocked if he doesn’t win this in 4 or less.