Aus Open – Day 10

Stan Wawrinka vs Alex Zverev
Zverev to Win

The #7 seed Zverev has had a hugely impressive run to this point, yet to drop a set thus far. He was especially good against Rublev last time out, winning all 3 sets 6-4 as an outright underdog.

He is averaging over 4 breaks of serve per match and has only been broken himself twice in his last 3 matches. Having played solely 3-setters so far, he should have a notable rest advantage heading into this one.

Wawrinka has had an up and down tournament, playing two 5-setters, a 4-setter and a 2-setter where his opponent retired. He hasn’t looked particularly dominant in any one match and easily could be out of the tournament by now.

Almost 35 years of age, he doesn’t come close to matching the athleticism and power of Zverev. At generous odds of $1.67, I think Zverev’s impressive serve fires him to an outright win here.

Anett Kontaveit vs Simona Halep
Halep to Win

Halep has had a very impressive tournament thus far and could easily take out the title here. She is yet to drop a set and looked in control throughout against #16 seed Mertens last time out.

Her opponent, Kontaveit, hasn’t been as dominant and could easily lost 2 of 4 matches thus far. She did beat #6 seed Bencic in Round 3, but the 6-0 6-1 scoreline suggests there were other factors at play.

Despite entering this tournament as the #28 seed, her grand slam record of ~ .500 is pedestrian to say the least. This is her first time reaching the second week of a slam, so I expect nerves to definitely be at play here.

She faced 19 break points against little-known Swiatek last time out, suggesting her serve has been pretty weak. An elite returner like Halep will capitalize on these opportunities and make it very tough for her to win. I also expect Halep’s serve to continue to hold here, meaning a spot in the semis should await.