Sunday, December 22

New York Knicks vs Milwaukee Bucks, 11:30 am
Knicks +13

The high-flying 25-4 Bucks stroll into New York to take on the 7-22 Knicks, laying a whopping 13 points. This is a huge letdown spot for Milwaukee and I would expect the Knicks to keep it relatively close here.

After playing a high-profile TNT home game against the Lakers, playing the lowly Knicks is a bit of a step down. The Bucks know they’ve got a huge talent edge here and will only need to string together some good late minutes to win.

Despite having generally been atrocious all year, the Knicks are still above .500 ATS. I think the market continues to undervalue them, handing them generous spreads at home like this.

This is the front end of a back-to-back for Milwaukee, playing division rivals Indiana at home on Monday. Both Giannis and Wes Matthews are day-to-day on the injury report and could easily sit here.

New York’s primary weakness is clearly the backcourt, where Milwaukee have no real studs either. The Knicks have a bevy of big Power Forwards, who should be able to combine together to somewhat limit Giannis.

With 80% of the early action on Milwaukee, I think the smart money will ultimately end up on the huge underdog Knicks here.

San Antonio Spurs vs LA Clippers, 12:30 pm
Clippers -5.5

The 21-9 Clippers travel to San Antonio, laying 5.5 points against the 11-16 Spurs. Given Kawhi’s connection to the franchise, I’d expect a strong effort from LA here, which should lead to a road win and cover.

The Clippers are finally in good shape on the injury report, with all of their main rotation guys ready to play here. This is only the first game of their road trip, so I don’t see fatigue playing a major role either.

I also really like the motivation edge for the Clippers here. They had a relatively poor loss at home to Houston last time out and they’ve only lost consecutively once all year.

They also suffered a defeat in San Antonio earlier this season, a loss I’m sure they’re determined to right. Not to mention the implications of Kawhi’s return, who is undoubtedly happy with how he was treated in 2017-18.

I also think the Spurs are an atrocious matchup for the Clippers, especially on the wing. They’ve just got no-one to go up against Kawhi and PG, who should really be able to dictate the game here.

The guard duo of Beverley and Shamet has also looked defensively of late, which bodes well against San Antonio’s deep backcourt. Laying just 5.5 points here, I’d expect a professional road performance from this veteran squad.