Sunday, December 15

Toronto Raptors vs Brooklyn Nets, 11:40 am
Raptors -7.5

The 16-8 Raptors open as 7.5-point home favourites against the 13-11 Nets and I’m inclined to back them here. Brooklyn has been in some strong form of late without Kyrie and I think the market is overvaluing them.

Toronto has one of the best home courts in the NBA and are looking quite healthy at this point, with only Fred VanVleet a game-time decision. While the Nets definitely look an improved side of late, most of their wins are against relatively poor East sides.

The Raptors have a ton of favourable matchups in this spot, particularly on defence. They’ve got several strong perimeter defenders, all of which should be able to contain new offensive hub Spencer Dinwiddie.

I also like the matchup for Toronto on the interior, with Ibaka and Gasol against Allen and Jordan. They should be able to win the battle on the boards as well as protect the rim effectively.

The contrarian angle is also solid here, with only 27% of bettors backing Toronto at this number. I think they’re the more talented side and their strong home court should propel them to a win and cover.

Denver Nuggets vs OKC Thunder, 1:10 pm
Nuggets -7

The 15-8 Nuggets are laying 7 at home to the 11-13 Thunder here and I like the matchup for the home side. They’ve faded a little bit of late, but I think Denver is a bit of a sleeping giant out West.

First and foremost, they’ve got an outstanding homecourt advantage. They’re 9-3 at home this season, compared to a pedestrian 4-8 record for OKC. They’re also essentially fully healthy here, with Paul Millsap looking likely to play.

Secondly, I have to think OKC are starting to become overvalued in this betting market. They’re 16-8 ATS, compared to just 10-11 for their opponents this season. Punters have been cashing tickets with OKC all year, but now looks like the right time to fade them.

I like the matchups for Denver in this one, particularly in the frontcourt. The trio of Jokic, Millsap, and Grant are as solid as you’ll find and I expect them to have their way with Gallinari and Adams.

The backcourt of Murray and Harris has also looked very promising and I give them a strong edge over CP3 and SGA. Denver is also the much deeper of these two sides, which becomes increasingly noticeable at high altitude.

7 points is a healthy spread here, but we’re quite devoid of options today. I’d expect a Denver win in this one, meaning them covering -7 is definitely +EV.