Saturday, December 28

Miami Heat vs Indiana Pacers, 12 pm
Heat -5

The 22-8 Heat host the 21-10 Pacers here, currently laying 5 points. Miami have proven to be one of the best home sides in the NBA and I like them again here.

The Heat have gone a very strong 13-1 at home thus far, including an impressive 11-3 ATS record. Indiana are very much a mediocre road side, going just 7-7 straight up and ATS.

The Pacers are also dealing with a few cluster injuries on the wing here. Not only is Oladipo still out, but both Jeremy Lamb and Malcolm Brogdon are questionable. This is especially dangerous against a Miami side that is very strong on the perimeter.

Miami also enter this clash fairly well rested, having been at home for the past 9 days and only playing twice. This has allowed them to heal to the point where Justise Winslow is the only injury concern.

I also think the Heat have a pretty strong advantage here in terms of coaching. Erik Spoelstra has been a wizard in close games this year, while Nate McMillan still leaves a lot to be desired.

In a matchup between two solid sides, I think Miami’s top-end talent and coaching advantage gives them the edge here. Combine that with their stout home record and they’re good value laying just 5 points.

Golden State Warriors vs Phoenix Suns, 2:30 pm
Suns -2.5

The 8-24 Warriors host the 11-19 Suns here, currently getting 2.5 points as a home underdog. The market may be starting to overvalue Golden State after 3 straight wins and this could be a good time to fade them.

This is a huge letdown spot for Golden State after their emotional win over Houston on Christmas. They’ve got a back-to-back in Utah tomorrow, a game they could very well be looking ahead to.

Phoenix have been a terrible 2-8 in their last 10, although they do have a positive ATS record in that time span. This tells me that they’re playing in relatively close games but can’t quite get the job done.

Having dealt with a ton of injuries all season, they’re finally approaching full health. Kelly Oubre is very likely to play here, meaning Ayton is the only rotation player projected to miss.

Phoenix ran Golden State off the court earlier this season and they’ve got the matchup edge to do it again here. They’ve got much more talent on the wing and a big like Aron Baynes should pose problems inside.

I’d expect a big game from Devin Booker here, one which propels Phoenix to get the win and cover.