After a relatively slow start, the Pacers have incrementally improved to a solid 6-4 record. OKC have been noticeably more inconsistent, only winning 4 of their first 10.
Punters are really favouring Indiana in this one, with 81% of action coming on the Pacers at the initial -3 line. Despite getting some good results, their recent schedule has been a cake walk to say the least.
They’ve won 5 of their last 6 contests, although these were against the Cavs, Bulls, Hornets, Wizards, Pistons, and Magic; hardly a murderer’s row. This makes me think they’re overrated by the general public and explains the betting disparity here.
They’re far from healthy in this one, with Myles Turner and Jeremy Lamb two huge injury losses in the rotation. Their current rotation really doesn’t inspire much confidence and I think they’ve been fortunate to have such an easy schedule.
OKC enter this one the healthier of these two sides, especially with Steven Adams likely to play. They’ve played a significantly tougher schedule this season and will likely come out at a higher level than their opponents.
Considering these injuries, I think they’ve got the better of the two starting fives and they’re also getting better high-end bench play. Their two guards should be able to control the tempo in this one, while they’ve also got the bigs to contain Sabonis.
Especially considering all the action on Indiana, I’ve already started to see some 3.5-point lines and can see this going further up. This is a relatively evenly matched game that could go either way, making OKC solid value through the key number of 3.
After an excellent start, a minor form slump has brought the Sixers back to 6-3. Cleveland are playing a gritty brand of basketball under Jim Beilein, moving to 4-5 after consecutive wins.
Philly open as 11-point favourites in this one, receiving 60% of the early action. I can’t help but feel as though there’s some reverse line value in this one. If this game was in Cleveland and Philly were only 5 point favourites, I could see this line moving drastically.
With these two sides trending in opposite directions of late, it appears as though Philly are slightly undervalued in the market. That said, it’s tough to put too much stock into the last few games for either side.
Philly had a brutal West Coast road trip, dealing with some of the league’s best teams while short-handed. Cleveland, on the other hand, managed to beat up on some scrubs, comfortably beating the Wizards and Knicks.
Philadelphia is one of the toughest places in the NBA to play and I’m not sure this young Cavs team is up for it. Especially against an elite Philly defence, I expect their relatively inefficient guards to struggle to create.
Even the strength of their team, the big-man duo of Love and Thompson, is completely outmatched against Horford and Embiid. Should Ben Simmons remain out for this one, the Sixers are still getting solid guard play from Neto, Burke, and Richardson.
While they’ve been a nice story so far, this Cavs team isn’t built to hang with the NBA’s elite. Expect Philly’s defence to set the tone here en route to a rather comfortable home win.