The Nets have been one of the more disappointing teams in the NBA this season, sitting outside the playoffs with a 5-8 record. A gritty Hornets side somehow occupies a spot in the top 8, just ahead of Brooklyn at 6-8.
Brooklyn opened as a 4-point favourite in this one, however 79% of the action on them has moved the line to +4.5. As usual, I see some value on the contrarian line of thinking here and will take Charlotte plus the points.
The main reason for this is that Brooklyn is absolutely decimated in the backcourt at present. Both Kyrie Irving and Caris LeVert have been ruled out here and the offence has taken a noticeable dip in their absence. 6th man Spencer Dinwiddie has been dealing with a ton of off-court issues and he also may not be fully focused here.
On the flipside, this Hornets team has no key injuries to speak of, after Batum and Bacon returned last time out. They got absolutely blown out by the Raptors and I expect a much more focused performance here.
One thing that Charlotte has done very well this season is beat the dregs. They’ve taken care of business against Chicago, Sacramento, Golden State, Detroit, and New York.
With how awful the Knicks have been playing of late, I really don’t see how they should be laying 4.5 against anyone, except an injured Golden State side. This has all the makings of a coin-flip type of game and I’ll gladly take the 4.5, while also sprinkling some on the moneyline.
There has been no championship hangover for Toronto, who’ve started the season an impressive 9-4. Orlando have struggled for a lot of this year, but a few recent wins has them 7th at 6-7.
Toronto find themselves as 4.5 point favourites here, getting an astounding 84% of the early betting action. Given the injuries Toronto have been dealing with, I’ll again take the contrarian approach and side with Orlando here.
With Lowry, Ibaka, and Johnson out here, the Raptors are really down to 5 quality rotation players. This puts a ton of pressure on their starting lineup and means their second unit is really susceptible to quick scoring runs.
Orlando are also looking like a more attractive option to bet, largely because they’ve disappointed punters most of this season. I think a lot of this was due to unsustainably poor shooting from deep, making them undervalued in the market.
I’d expect at least one of DJ Augustin and Jonathan Isaac here, meaning they’ve got a very solid 8-man rotation. I particularly like the matchup for their second unit, especially with Terrence Ross against his former side.
Since this injury bug hit, the Raptors have gone a relatively solid 3-2. I think the fatigue to their starters will begin to pile up and they could be vulnerable if Lowry and Ibaka don’t return soon.
Guys like Siakam and Van Vleet will need to expend a ton of energy against the stout Orlando D and I can see them fading late in this one. Orlando has a legitimate shot of getting the win here, but I’ll take the insurance with the extra 4.5 points.