Both of these sides have gotten out to fast starts, with Boston sitting at 6-1 and the Spurs at 5-3. The Celtics are a solid 4-2-1 ATS, while the Spurs have only covered the number twice this season.
For this reason, I think they’re undervalued by the market and look great value laying just a single point. On Monday this week, they were also laying a single point at home to the Lakers. While Boston have certainly been impressive, I’m not sure they’re at the Lakers’ level yet.
6-1 looks excellent on paper, but the only Boston win that has been impressive so far was against Milwaukee. They’ve feasted on some very easy opponents, beating the Knicks twice, as well as Cleveland and Charlotte in their last two.
Injuries have really started to pile up on the interior, which could be problematic against a strong San Antonio frontcourt. Enes Kanter remains out with a knee injury, while both Daniel Theis and Robert Williams aren’t yet at full fitness.
This could also definitely be an emotional letdown for Boston, after Kemba Walker’s homecoming in Charlotte last time out. Especially considering this is the third and final game of their road trip, we could see a flat spot here.
Compare that to a Spurs side that looked very good at home to OKC last time out, covering with ease. Aldridge feasted on the interior with an impressive 39 points and I can see him having his way with Boston’s vulnerable frontcourt here.
The Spurs also have the health advantage here, sporting a roster free of any injuries for this one. These two sides are relatively evenly matched and with the excellent San Antonio home court, I’ll take the Spurs at the small number here.
Neither of these sides has had an impressive start to the season. The injury-plagued Warriors are just 2-7, while OKC are only 3-5 themselves.
As bad as the Warriors have been this season, I’m not sure they should be catching 12 points in this one. They looked much better against Minnesota last time out, largely due to some competent PG play from D’Angelo Russell.
This also looms as a solid revenge spot after the Warriors were blown out by OKC almost a fortnight ago. That was the only time OKC won by a margin above the spread and I think we see a much better Golden State effort here.
Although the Warriors played an Overtime game last night, I think a relatively young side should be able to recover quickly here. Rookie Eric Paschall is looking like one for the future, while Alec Burks is providing some much-needed bench scoring.
Given what we’ve seen from OKC, I’m not sure why they’re laying 12 points in this one. They’re a relatively top-heavy roster and lack the offensive creation to put up a lot of points.
They do have the slight rest advantage here, but I think that is made up for by the revenge factor for Golden State. For reference, the Golden State at Houston line closed at 13.5 just the other day.
Ultimately, I think this line is probably 3-4 points too many here, with Russell making this team competent offensively. I expect a relatively close affair, with Golden State at least competing and likely covering this exorbitant number.