NFL Week 12 Tips & Preview

I gave the Houston Texans an excellent chance to beat the Baltimore Ravens last weekend and they let me down. Badly. I won’t be giving them a second chance. It is scary to think how good this Indianapolis Colts side could be with Andrew Luck at quarterback and they still have an excellent chance to make the playoffs with Jacoby Brissett under centre. There really isn’t much between these two sides and the Colts are great value at their current odds of $2.75.

There is no way that Mitch Trubisky should be a quarterback in the NFL. He is putrid. If the Bears actually cared about winning they would have called Colin Kaepernick months ago. Bears coach Matt Nagy did pull Trubisky towards the end of last week’s clash with the Los Angeles Rams, but that was only due to injury reasons. Injury or not, he should not be in this league. It stuns me to say it, but Daniel Jones has been competent and I’d much rather have him than Trubisky.

I keep potting the Buffalo Bills and they keep winning. Will I continue to pot them? Yes. Buffalo continue to take advantage of their weak schedule and they will be exposed when they play a proper team. Are the Denver Broncos a proper team? Not really, but they did give the Minnesota Vikings a serious scare last weekend and they are much better than the Bills.

Weird things happen in the NFC South and you can often throw out the form guide when any of the teams in the division do battle. I’m not saying that the Carolina Panthers, on the back of a putrid effort against the Atlanta Falcons, are capable of winning this game, but I don’t think that there is as much between these sides as the current market suggests. Remember this Saints team lost to the Falcons themselves a couple of weeks ago and the Panthers did win the last meeting between the pair.

The pressure is really on Carson Wentz. He has been plagued by injuries in recent seasons, but that just may have hidden the fact that he actually isn’t any good. Wentz was given plenty of opportunities to get the job done against the New England Patriots last weekend and he failed. In a battle between Wentz and Russell Wilson, it should come as no surprise that I am siding with Wilson.

The only thing that would make this match worth watching would be if a Cincinnati Bengals player removed the helmet of Mason Rudolph and attempted to strike him with it – as we saw last week against the Cleveland Browns. The Steelers should win a very low-scoring and almost certainly a boring game.

God bless the Cleveland Browns! Even when they win games, they still manage to trash their reputation and the actions of Myles Garrett, while funny, were clearly uncalled for. Can the Browns sink any lower? Yes. A loss to the Miami Dolphins will do exactly that. The Dolphins have played some good football in recent weeks and it would be truly remarkable to witness the turmoil in Cleveland if the Dolphins do get the job done.

What has happened to the Atlanta Falcons? They looked like one of the worst teams in football earlier this month, but they have since made it two impressive wins on the trot over the New Orleans Saints and the Carolina Panthers. Can they make it three wins on the trot? I really can’t see why not. The Falcons have won their past five matches against the Buccaneers and Tampa Bay are a team that you can never back with any confidence.

No thanks. Both these teams come into this game on the back of winning streaks, but neither are good. The Oakland Raiders are much better than the New York Jets though and I am surprised that they aren’t shorter-priced favourites for this clash. The Raiders winning four games in a row does seem unlikely, but this is the state of the modern NFL.

I’ve made many bad calls in the NFL this season, but loudly proclaiming that the Detroit Lions were a good bet to win the NFC North is probably the worst. While they definitely aren’t going to win the NFC North, they should still prove too strong for the Washington Redskins. Jeff Driskle actually played fairly well against the Dallas Cowboys and their defence is better than the Redskins.

There is one betting strategy in games involving the Tennessee Titans and the Jacksonville Jaguars over the past couple of seasons – back the Under. They have played some truly putrid games, with the clear lowlight being their 9-6 slugfest last year. Ryan Tannehill is better than Marcus Mariota, but I still think that we might be in for something similar in this contest.

I am a Dallas Cowboys fan and even I can’t bring myself to back them against the New England Patriots this weekend. The Patriots have won eight games on the trot as home favourites and they haven’t lost to the Cowboys since 1996. The Cowboys were unable to stop Jeff Driskle last week and their defence looks set to help Tom Brady return to his best form.

This is going to be some game. The San Francisco 49ers looked set to come back to earth when they went down to the Arizona Cardinals early last weekend, but they played some good football to claim a comfortable win in the end. Jimmy Garoppolo looked the goods, but this will be a tougher test again. Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers are fresh off the bye and I really don’t think that there is as much between these two sides as the current market suggests.

Last week I said that the hype for Lamar Jackson may have gone too far. I was wrong. It hasn’t gone far enough. Jackson produced another incredible performance to dismantle the Houston Texans and stamp himself as the player to beat in the MVP race. I can’t stress how strange it is to be supporting the Ravens, but I will be doing exactly that this weekend. Jared Goff vs Lamar Jackson just isn’t a fair fight and the line for a big Ravens win doesn’t look anywhere near large enough.