The UFC returns to Madison Square Garden this Sunday for what promises to be an epic event in UFC 244. This is one of the more stacked cards in recent memory, headlined by a bout between Welterweights Jorge Masvidal and Nate Diaz. Darren Till also makes his Middleweight debut against Kelvin Gastelum, while Derrick Lewis returns for a Heavyweight bout against Blagoy Ivanov. We’ll preview each of these fights now, providing our 3 best bets in the process.
Jorge Masvidal
Game Bred continues to look like one of the more underrated fighters in the UFC, entering this bout with a strong 34-13 record. He joined the UFC in 2013, going 10-6 in his bouts so far. Known primarily for his outspoken nature and elite striking ability, 15 of his career wins are by knockout. Consecutive knockouts of Darren Till and Ben Askren show that he’s arguably the most in-form Welterweight right now.
Nate Diaz
Nate is another of the most prominent fighters in this division, entering this bout with a strong 20-11 career record. He is threatening to sit this fight out due to issues with USADA, but I expect him to ultimately fight. After a 3-year lay-off, he had a rather solid unanimous decision win over Anthony Pettis this past August. Known primarily for being elite on the ground, 12 of his 20 career wins are by submission.
Prediction: Masvidal $1.62
It’s hard not to be impressed with what Masvidal has done this year. He dominated Till in a fight no-one wanted to take, backing that up with an incredible KO of Ben Askren. I think he’s motivated for an even bigger fight after this, while Diaz is already locked in a war of words with USADA. He has the definite edge in the stand-up game here, while also possessing some very strong takedown defence. Especially with Diaz’ propensity to bleed, I think Masvidal scores a lot of points here, ultimately managing a late KO.
Kelvin Gastelum
Although he is a penchant for criticism, Gastelum enters this bout with a fairly strong 15-4-1 career record. He had a shot against current champion Israel Adesanya in his last bout, ultimately falling via decision. This begs the question as to whether he would’ve beaten Rob Whittaker if their February bout went ahead. A very versatile fighter, Gastelum has 6 wins by knockout, 4 by submission, and 5 by decision.
Darren Till
Till started his career on an incredible pace, going 17-0-1 through his first 18 fights. He was the comfortable favourite in his Welterweight title bout with Tyron Woodley, although he flattered to deceive and was submitted in the second round. This was backed up by a relatively poor display against Jorge Masvidal, which prompted his move to Middleweight. Known primarily for his striking ability, he has 10 wins by knockout and 5 by decision thus far.
Prediction: Till $2.35
Despite this being Till’s debut at Middleweight, I think he has the clear size edge over Gastelum in this one. His reach advantage should come in handy in the striking battle and I think he can negate Kelvin’s ability in the clinch. Given his recent odds against Woodley and Masvidal, the $2.35 on offer for Till makes it seem like he’s underrated in the current market. This fight could go either way, but I’ll gladly take the extra juice with Till.
Blagoy Ivanov
The Bulgarian veteran enters this bout with a stellar 18-2 career record to date. He joined the UFC last year and has gone 2-1 in limited action so far. His last bout was an epic clash against Aussie Tai Tuivasa in June; one that he won by decision. He is capable of winning in a variety of ways, earning 6 wins by each of the 3 main methods thus far.
Derrick Lewis
Now 34 years of age, the Black Beast is 21-7-1 for his career. Known first and foremost as a knockout specialist, he has 18 wins by KO thus far. He earned a surprise title shot last year, ultimately losing to Cormier in what was a poor matchup for him. He is vulnerable in longer fights that go to the ground a lot, so he’ll be looking to finish things quickly here.
Prediction: Lewis by 1st Round KO
While Lewis is unsurprisingly the slight underdog, there is still a clear path to him winning this. Blagoy has a clear edge on the ground here, but I think Lewis’ power can overwhelm him early. He hasn’t faced anyone like Lewis previously and one punch is all it takes to stun him. I think Lewis needs to get it done early to get the win, meaning this is better value than the $2 on offer for a straight-up win.