This is a relatively square play by my standards, but I just don’t have any faith in this Warriors team at the moment. I’ve faded them in both games to start the season and they’ve been dreadful in both.
I’m somewhat concerned about the reverse line movement here, with New Orleans moving from a 3 to a 2 point favourite despite garnering the majority of the action. Even so, I just don’t think the Warriors have the bodies to compete with them right now.
They are painfully thin on the interior, with Cauley Stein and Looney out injured and Draymond seemingly banged up. While New Orleans are somewhat weaker on the interior without Zion, they still match up rather well with Golden State. I expect a solid starting big like Derrick Favors to eat in this one, backed up capably by Okafor and Meli.
Golden State are also atrocious on the wing, where they have probably the worst rotation options in the league. They’ve been predictably carved open by decent wings in both games so far, a trend I see continuing all year.
Brandon Ingram comes into this one after a 35-point display and has another chance for a big night here. Josh Hart should also enjoy some success here, with Kenny Williams providing solid minutes off the bench.
This bet admittedly does hinge somewhat on the health of Jrue Holiday. He is currently listed as questionable for this one, but I think New Orleans are great value at this line if he plays.
One of the better two-way Point Guards in the NBA, he is a very credible defensive option to put on Steph. A super-Saiyan performance from Curry is the only way I see Golden State winning here, but I think a defensive duo of Ball and Holiday can contain him nicely.
I do expect a better effort from the Warriors here, but they’ve really only got 3 NBA rotation players suiting up. The weak links on this roster likely get exposed here, as the Pels do just enough to win and cover.
This is looking like one of the most one-sided bet games of the season so far, with 81% of the early action on Denver. Unsurprisingly, I’m going to continue being a contrarian and take Sacramento as a healthy home underdog.
This is simply a case of excellent line value. Sacramento opened the season as road favourites at Phoenix, who were just 11-point underdogs against Denver on Saturday.
With home court essentially representing 3 points either side, this line suggests Denver would be a 12-point favourite at home against the Kings. 3 games into the season and the oddsmakers are already putting Phoenix over Sacramento?
That just doesn’t make sense to me, especially given how plucky Sacramento are at home. They were very good at the Golden One Centre last season and I see another winning home record this year.
As good as they’ll be this season, Denver will likely hover around .500 on the road. They have one of the best home court advantages in the NBA, but this group hasn’t proven to be a great road side.
Their form to start the season hasn’t been great either. While they got a solid win at Portland on opening night, they only beat the lowly Suns by 1 at home last time out.
While they have struggled so far, I like the roster Sacramento has put together. They’re a deep team that should fare well throughout the regular season, particularly in transition. Given their 0-3 predicament, I also think they’ve got a natural edge over Denver in this one.
If you treat NBA teams like stocks, the Kings are ultimately undervalued in this spot. I like the fact that the majority of punters are on Denver and can see this line moving further. While I’m not sure they win outright, I think they do enough to at least keep it close.