With the first day where most teams in the league are playing, I always try to look for value underdogs. I believe I’ve identified one here in Detroit, with the public heavily on Indiana here.
Despite starting last season impressively, Indiana just weren’t the same team without Victor Oladipo. They unsurprisingly struggled offensively and were roughly .500 over the last stretch of the season.
This is also a very different group to the one we saw occupy a top 4 seed for most of last season. Not only is Oladipo out until at least 2020, this team has also lost key pieces in Bogdanovic, Young, and Collison.
I think guys like Brogdon, Warren, and Lamb could prove to be good additions in the future, but they’ll definitely take time to gel. They’ve also heavily invested in the Sabonis/Turner frontcourt, which I’m not necessarily a fan of.
They’re an awful defensive duo and could really struggle against the bruising Detroit frontcourt. Sabonis looks particularly vulnerable on that end of the floor and I can see Indiana’s starters getting out to some early deficits this season.
Compare that to a Detroit side that is largely underrated by the general public. I initially liked them before Blake’s injury, but believe the extra 3 points is definitely fair. The additions of Derrick Rose and Tony Snell are both also quite useful and I expect them to round out this rotation nicely.
Combine that with Dwayne Casey, who has proven to be one of the better regular season coaches in the Association. He works his side fairly hard during training camp and they tend to start the season well as a result.
Especially without Oladipo, I actually think Detroit is the slightly better of these two sides. Even factoring in home court, I don’t think Indiana should be favoured by more than 2 points here.
The line has now moved to Detroit +8 (after the Blake injury), which goes through the key numbers of 5 and 7 if this gets into the free-throw game late. Add that with the line value and contrarian angle and Detroit are a very appealing play on the real opening day.
After a stellar off-season, I’m not surprised to see a ton of positive buzz surrounding Brooklyn. Kyrie at Point Guard is an upgrade over D’Angelo and Kevin Durant will make this squad a real contender out East.
That said, I think they’re probably another overrated team going into this season. This is also a squad with a ton of new faces that will certainly take some time to bed in.
As mentioned in the Detroit pick, the opening day is a great time to look for the ugly duckling that most fans are dismissing. Few teams fit that bill more than the ever-disappointing Minnesota Timberwolves.
And I can understand why. Few things are more disappointing than having Andrew Wiggins brick your money away down the stretch.
With many punters actively avoiding the Wolves, I can see them covering a lot of spreads to start this season. I believe their win total was way too low in the off-season and can see them around 40 wins in 2019-20.
Ryan Saunders looks like a promising young coach who can build a sustainably competitive team. In Karl Anthony Towns, he has one of the best young big men in the league to do that with.
I’m also a huge fan of some of the role players they added this off-season. Guys like Jordan Bell, Jake Layman, and Shabazz Napier all add quality depth to this side. I think they’ll play with a ton of pace and energy, which will really surprise a lot of teams.
With a few new faces in key roles, the Nets could struggle out of the gate. They’ll need to establish a hierarchy on that squad and will take some time to learn how to play together.
Especially on opening day, I think the 5.5 points currently on offer is just too much for Minnesota. They’re an underrated team with good coaching, a young star, and energetic role players.
That is a very effective combination against a team like Brooklyn and I see this being fairly close. By all means sprinkle some on the money line, but take this +5.5 for some extra insurance.