Both of these sides got off to impressive starts in game 1, managing relatively comfortable outright victories. Trae Young looked particularly good away at Detroit, putting the team on his back in a solid road win. Orlando destroyed Cleveland early on, before a relatively sloppy second half meant they got the win without a cover.
They match up in Atlanta tonight and I’m definitely liking Orlando at these relatively low odds. The Magic were one of the better sides in the Association to close last season and I believe they’re somewhat underrated in the market.
This is reflected in the early betting action, with Atlanta getting 63% of the tickets thus far. The average fan would definitely make the Hawks favourites in this one, but I think Orlando is significantly the better team.
They match up very well with this Atlanta side, particularly on the interior. Vucevic, Gordon, and Isaac is a very strong front court that should dominate Atlanta inside.
While I’m a fan of John Collins, he’s certainly no defensive stalwart and I can see him getting bothered on the other end by Orlando’s length. Alex Len also represents a noticeable downgrade from DeWayne Dedmon and should struggle against the sharp shooting Vucevic.
What doesn’t get much attention is just how good the Magic are defensively. Coach Steve Clifford remains somewhat underrated on that end of the floor and has a ton of talented defenders to work with here.
I think they can contain an Atlanta offence that relies so heavily on Trae Young. With no other competent PG on the roster, Atlanta need a big game from him every time out to stay in games.
On the other side, Atlanta appear to have even worse defensive personnel this year, after they were already one of the worst defensive sides last year. Orlando isn’t necessarily a potent offence, but guys like Vucevic and ‘Don’t Google Me’ Fournier should still eat.
I think the combination of solid defence and competent interior play gets the job done for Orlando here, especially at this low of a number.
I’ll preface this by saying that taking the Cavs is one of the harder bets in all of the NBA right now, especially after Charlotte yesterday. That said, often the toughest bets end up being the most profitable in the long term.
We had some success fading Indiana in their season-opener, where they lost outright to Detroit as a 7.5-point favourite. This wasn’t necessarily surprising to me as I believe they’ve been overrated all off-season.
They have a ton of new faces that are still bedding in and learning to play together. With Oladipo out, the supporting cast looks worse than the group that went roughly .500 without him last year.
I have my doubts about the Sabonis/Turner frontcourt and can see them struggling again here. With his range and shooting ability, Kevin Love is simply a nightmare matchup for Sabonis.
He should take him out of the paint and provide some driving opportunities for young Guards in Garland and Sexton. When combined with Tristan Thompson and Larry Nance Junior, Cleveland should be able to match up well on the interior here.
I also think there is some line value on the Cavs here. While they were woeful against Orlando, they still managed a cover against a team that is probably top 6 in the conference.
Getting 5.5 points at home means they’d be getting 8.5 on a neutral court and 11.5 if this were in Indiana. Especially since the Pacers don’t have a real star, I’m not sure what they’ve done to justify laying these numbers.
I expect new coach John Beilein to maximize what he gets out of this group, starting in a winnable home fixture. Through key numbers like 3 and 5, I’ll take the home dog here in a game that could go either way.