Things couldn’t have started much worse for Golden State this season. They got absolutely destroyed as they opened their new arena, allowing 141 points in the process. OKC haven’t been great either, losing as a heavy favourite to Washington last time out.
I thought Golden State was overrated to start the season and I can see it being a while before the market corrects. Realistically, I don’t think they should be road favourites in this one.
Their already thin roster has been decimated further by injuries, particularly at the Center spot. Projected starter Cauley-Stein was already ruled out for this one, with fill-in starter Kevon Looney to follow after an injury last time out.
Draymond Green is also somewhat banged up after game 1, although he projects to play here. What this means is that Golden State has essentially no NBA-rotation calibre Centres active for this one. As such, I can see a solid big like Steven Adams absolutely dominating on the interior.
Similarly, their incredibly weak wing rotation was torn apart by the Clippers last time out. Admittedly a lot of that was against Kawhi, but guys like Gallinari and SGA have a huge matchup advantage here.
With their 2 Centres out, the Warriors have essentially 3 NBA calibre rotation players available here. While these are 3 previous All-Stars, I think they can only do so much with the lack of talent around them.
OKC are no world-beaters by any means, but they’re the much deeper team here with a strong home-court advantage. They’ve got the defensive length and versatility to at least contain Golden State’s explosive backcourt, which should prove decisive here.
The Nets have garnered a ton of betting action in both their matches so far, going 1-1 and failing to cover in either. Bettors are high on this team after their strong off-season, although I think they’re still overvalued in the market.
While Kyrie over D’Angelo is somewhat of an upgrade, this roster doesn’t look all that much better than last year. They likely win in the low 40’s this year, meaning they’ll probably find themselves 5-8 in the East.
With that in mind, I don’t see why they’re laying 5 in this spot. They were outplayed by Minnesota in game 1 and very nearly lost in New York last time out.
While they lack household names on this roster, the Grizzlies have a bunch of solid rotation players and should really be frisky this season. I particularly like their starting frontcourt, with Crowder, Jackson, and Valanciunas more than a match for their opposition.
They’ve also got a fairly competent second unit that should be able to step up and handle guys like Dinwiddie, Jordan, and Temple. Memphis represents one of the more underrated home court advantages in the league, a place where the Grizzlies tend to compete hard every night.
While it’s hard to back some of these lesser teams, often times they represent some of the best value on the market. The Nets are getting over two thirds of the action again for this one, which could see it going past 5. Ultimately, I’ll take Memphis and the points at anything 5 or above here.