Friday, November 1

New Orleans Pelicans vs Denver Nuggets, 12:30 pm
Pelicans +3

Without a ton of value on today’s small slate, this is the only play I’m going with. The weekend appears to have a lot of action on both days, so I’ll look to throw in an extra play there.

This is another one of those plays largely driven by a contrarian angle. 80% of the early action has been on Denver in this one and I can see this line further improving in the Pelicans’ favour before tip-off.

After a ton of hype over the off-season, I think Denver is overrated in the current market. Aside from a decent road win away at Portland in game 1, they really haven’t done anything all year. They beat the Suns by 1 point, narrowly covered against the Kings, and lost outright as a home favourite against Dallas.

Compare that to a New Orleans side that punters are definitely down on. They’re 0-4 straight up this season, managing only a single cover thus far.

They were destroyed by Golden State last time out, a loss that is starting to look worse and worse. However, I think a major reason for that defeat was the injuries they’ve been dealing with. In addition to Zion, star player Jrue Holiday and starting Center Derrick Favors were both out.

Holiday is probable to start in this one, while Favors looks like a 50/50 shot. These two provide much more balance to the New Orleans offence and can attack a vulnerable Denver defence.

I still have relatively high hopes for this deep Pelicans side this season, particularly during home games. They’re heavily undervalued in this spot, a game where they’ll be very competitive if not win outright. In a game reminiscent of Boston yesterday, I’ll take the home dog plus the points here.