Serena Williams
The G.O.A.T continues to dominate women’s tennis, putting up a 25-5 record so far in her age 37 season. She has dropped just 1 set in her 6 victories this tournament, with a straight-sets win over Svitolina being particularly impressive. She was dominant all match, winning 86% of points on 1st serve and breaking her opponent 4 times. Williams is 6-3 for her career in US Open finals and will be looking to avenge her shock loss to Osaka last year.
Bianca Andreescu
Regardless of the result, this young Canadian deserves immense credit for the quality she has shown this season. She is 44-4 in WTA singles matches this season, dropping just 2 sets during the US Open so far. Her Semi-Final win was particularly impressive, knocking off Bencic in two relatively tight sets. This is easily the biggest match of her career, having never made it past the 2nd round in a grand slam previously.
Prediction: Williams -1.5 Sets $1.85
Despite Andreescu’s outstanding form this season, I just can’t see Serena letting this incredible opportunity slip. I think she is still the much better player in this matchup and certainly won’t have the same nerves as her opponent. Her win over Svitolina showed she can mix it up with the best and I expect her shot making ability to prove too much. I expect her to win a somewhat close first set before racing away in the second, making -1.5 sets look like excellent value.
As a secondary play, I really like the look of Serena winning the first set 6-3. This is one of the more common set scorelines in the WTA, occurring in 4 of Serena’s 6 matches this tournament. Andreescu has a solid but unspectacular serve, one which I think Serena breaks either once or twice in the first set. Assuming Serena’s serve remains as consistent as it has been all tournament, this makes the 6-3 look very plausible at tasty $5.50 odds.