Alex Zverev
The young German still looks like one of the future ATP stars, entering this tournament as the #6 seed. He is in the midst of another solid campaign, going 33-17 with 1 title so far. He has faced a relatively difficult road to reach this point, losing 5 combined sets against the trio of Albot, Tiafoe, and Bedene. This is the furthest he’s ever made it at Flushing Meadows, where he now enjoys a 7-4 career record.
Diego Schwartzman
The Argentine vet is one of the more consistent players on tour, entering this tournament as the #20 seed. He also has enjoyed a solid 2019 so far, going 33-18 with a title of his own. His form thus far has been outstanding, having won all 3 of his matches in straight sets. He does have some decent pedigree at the US Open, now going 13-5 for his career.
Prediction: Zverev ML $1.83
Although Schwartzman has been in some great recent form, I think this is overvaluing him in the betting market. At nearly a foot taller than his opponent, I think Zverev’s game is much more suited to hardcourt. I don’t see Schwartzman getting a look on his serve in this one, while Zverev should have no trouble breaking. At near even money, I think the value is definitely on the #6 seed here.
Rafael Nadal
The #2 seed now looks like the favourite to win the tournament after Novak’s injury retirement yesterday. He has had a very cruisy run to this point, winning 2 matches in straight sets and getting a walkover against Kokkinakis. His form in lead-up tournaments was fantastic, dropping just 1 set as he won the prestigious Rogers Cup. Nadal certainly enjoys the conditions at Flushing Meadows, now 61-11 for his career.
Marin Cilic
Although not quite at his peak of a few years ago, Cilic is still a very competent #22 seed. He has negotiated a tough road to make it here, beating both Stebe and Isner in tough 4-setters. His form in the lead-up tournaments was nothing to write home about, with relatively early exits at both Cincinnati and the Rogers Cup. The US Open is still historically his best grand slam, going an impressive 36-9 for his career.
Prediction: Cilic +6.5 Games
While Nadal is rightly favoured in this matchup, the conditions here are really suited to Cilic’s game. He gets a ton of bounce on his serve on hardcourt, making it difficult even for elite returners like Nadal. Rafa also hasn’t faced anyone near Cilic’s quality during this tournament and there could be somewhat of an adjustment period. I just don’t see Cilic’s serve getting broken more than a couple of times here, making me like the generous +6.5 handicap.