Alex de Minaur
Despite being unseeded, the #38 ranked Aussie has been very impressive en route to the 4th round. He had two relatively straightforward wins to start off, before an outstanding 4-set win against #7 seed Kei Nishikori. He has been killing it on first serve all tournament, landing 65% and winning 73% of those points. This strong run has taken his career US Open record to 5-2, his best in any grand slam.
Dimitrov has also fallen dramatically from his heights, entering this tournament ranked #78 in the world. He has received his fair share of luck, with #12 seed Borna Coric retiring in round 2. His other 2 matches have been straightforward, dropping just 1 combined set in wins over Seppi and Majchrzak. This run comes off the back of some atrocious form, where he won just 1 of his last 7 matches in the lead-up.
Prediction: Over 38.5 Games
Neither of these men would’ve entered this tournament expecting to make the 4th round. Both have some very solid strengths, although neither has been hugely consistent throughout their career. De Minaur is probably the better player right now, although this is a huge pressure moment for him. I think the Aussie ultimately takes it in 4 or 5 sets, although the value is on the over at this number.
The Djoker is in the midst of another outstanding campaign, going 41-7 overall with 3 titles this season. The #1 seed has had a relatively simple road to round 4, having not dropped a set so far. He has excelled at Flushing Meadows throughout his career, now enjoying a 72-10 record with 3 titles. He has also largely had Wawrinka’s number, compiling a 20-5 record against him and winning 8 of 10 on hardcourt.
Stan has also had a decent road to the 4th round, dropping 2 sets so far and seeing off a difficult affair against Paolo Lorenzi. While not at the level he once was, his 26-16 record for the season show he still has what it takes. Despite a poor career record against Novak, he did manage an epic upset against him in the 2016 Final here.
Prediction: Djokovic 3-0 $2
Novak looks to be in career best form right now, while Stan has commenced the gradual decline. I think Novak’s defence and athleticism prove too much in this one as Stan’s inconsistencies ultimately prove his downfall. He knows the importance of recovery during a grand slam fortnight and won’t show Stan any mercy here. Novak has proven his ability to $1.17 for the outright win isn’t hugely valuable, although $2 for straight sets looks very tasty.