Cincinnati Reds
The Reds have had a poor campaign to date, going just 66-75 and sitting 4th in the AL Central. They have been a decent 39-33 at home, although they’ve won just 4 of their last 10 overall. Eugenio Suarez is comfortably their best offensive player, going for 41 home runs and 88 RBI so far. Luis Castillo will pitch here, sporting a strong 14-5 record and 3.25 ERA through 166 innings.
Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks have been relatively impressive, going 73-67 and sitting 2nd in the NL West. Their road record is a decent 37-34, going 9-1 over their last 10. 3rd Baseman Eduardo Escobar leads the way offensively, putting up 33 home runs and 110 RBI. Alex Young will pitch here, going 6-3 with a 3.84 ERA this season.
Prediction: Diamondbacks $2.35
Although Castillo has been a solid pitcher this season, I like Arizona in this spot. They are one of the form teams in the majors and Young has been a particularly solid pitching option. They also possess the deeper and more versatile batting lineup, one which can give Castillo some trouble. I think they should really be slight favourites here, making $2.35 look like outstanding value.
Miami Marlins
Things have been bad all season for Miami, going 50-90 and sitting 5th in the NL East. They’ve gone just 28-43 at home this season, winning only 3 of their last 10. Starlin Castro leads the way offensively, although he’s only managed 17 home runs and 74 RBI. Caleb Smith will pitch here, going a somewhat respectable 8-9 with a 4.3 ERA.
Kansas City Royals
KC Haven’t been much better, going just 52-90 and sitting 4th in their division, only above the lowly Tigers. They did win the series opener between these two sides, a relatively lacklustre affair that they won 3-0. I wouldn’t count on that road form continuing, evidenced by a poor 22-46 road record this season. Danny Duffy will pitch here, going 5-6 with a 4.89 ERA so far.
Prediction: Marlins $1.85
This is another matchup between two atrocious sides, although Miami has a few slight edges. They’ve performed somewhat better at home this season, while KC have been amongst the worst road sides in the league. Caleb Smith is also one of their best pitchers, putting up a decent 8-9 record so far. Especially with Danny Duffy’s road struggles, I think their hitters score enough to secure the win at $1.85.