NFL Week 3 Tips & Preview

NFL Week 3 Tips & Preview

After a bruising Week 2, it’s all about survival in the NFL right now as injuries to some big name players have changed the scope of the season.

For the Pittsburgh Steelers, their fate now rests in the hands of Mason Rudolph after Ben Roethlisberger went down.

Teddy Bridgewater and Taysom Hill have to hold the fort until Drew Brees recovers from his injury.

In New York, the Jets are already on their third quarterback and they travel to New England with a three touchdown spread to cover.

We’ve previewed every game and found our best bets here.

Jacksonville Jaguars v Tennessee Titans
SGM: Titans to Cover -1.5, Under 39 Points, Derrick Henry Anytime TD Scorer @ $6.36

Every season we get this brutal Thursday Night Football clash which usually makes watching static seem like a better option. This game comes down to whoever asks their quarterback to screw up the least so right off the bat, look for the running backs to decide this game. More running plays to cover up bad offences means a shorter game with fewer scoring opportunities. That puts the under into play and I’ll back the Titans to cover since they are a slightly less rubbish team and not anywhere near as dysfunctional as the Jaguars. Then to top it off, Derrick Henry has scored in both games so far so I’ll back the big running back to find the end zone again.

Green Bay Packers v Denver Broncos
Packers to Cover -7.5 @ $2.00

It’s fair to ask right now, are we sure the Packers are good? If you want to be generous to them, you can say they have had some teething problems as Aaron Rodgers and company adjust to life under a new coach. That being said, Denver’s offence has been utterly brutal so far and if Green Bay does get a 21-0 lead again this weekend, the Broncos won’t be getting anywhere close to that without a defensive or special teams score. I’d be happier if this line was 6.5 but realistically the Packers should still be able to cover it.

Buffalo Bills v Cincinnati Bengals
Bills -6.5 & Under 44.5 @ $3.80

If you want a clear sign that the apocalypse may be coming here it is, the Bills are 2-0 and looking pretty good… or at least not like garbage. The Bengals are fresh off getting blown out by the 49ers and that could be a warning sign about what to expect going forward with this team. It’s possibly the biggest leap of faith you can take but I’ll back the Bills to make the Bengals look really bad here. Chances are we’ll be in for a low scoring affair either way so also take the under in the doubles market.     

Philadelphia Eagles v Detroit Lions
Detroit to Cover +6

What’s left of the Eagles hosts a Detroit team that is still technically undefeated thanks to their tie in Week 1. A litany of injuries caused Doug Pederson to cancel the main practice during the week and it’s not looking good for the receivers especially with Carson Wentz set to be down his top two targets which would severely limit the offensive potential if the Lions can key off on the running game. As tempting as it is to take the Lions for an opportunistic upset, it’s best to play it safe and back them at the line.

New England Patriots v New York Jets
SGM: Patriots to Cover -22.5 & Sony Michel to Score 2+ TDs

Sometimes it all works out for the Patriots, 2-0 with an aggregate scoreline of 76-3 on the season so far, and now they have the Luke Falk quarterbacked Jets coming to Gillette Stadium. Consider this, in New England’s last three meaningful games, they have given up two field goals. That’s it, two freaking field goals and as much as we like to make fun of Ryan Fitzpatrick, they also did that against Jared Goff and the LA Rams, plus Ben Roethlisberger and the Steelers. In short, this defence is looking really good and they are beating up on the teams they are supposed to. They should be able to keep the Jets in single digits and even if Tom Brady’s calf is still bothering him come gameday, that won’t stop the Pats moving the ball at will and I’ll back running back Sony Michel to get his first two touchdowns of the season.

Minnesota Vikings v Oakland Raiders
Back the Vikings to Cover -9 @ $1.92

This is the start of a brutal stretch for the Raiders that has six weeks between games in Oakland, starting with this game in Minnesota. Chances are the Vikings won’t have to try and chase down a 21-0 deficit like they did last week in Minnesota. The Raiders still look like they are trying to work out who they are so I’ll take the Vikings to cover here as I just don’t think Minnesota will give them too many opportunities to capitalise on a short field.

Kansas City Chiefs v Baltimore Ravens
SGM: Chiefs by 1-13 & Over 52.5

There’s a great excuse for an early morning alarm on Monday and it’s taking place in Kansas City. The Chiefs only needed to play one good quarter to get by Oakland but will need to be on their guard against the Ravens who have been possibly the most entertaining watch of the first fortnight. As much fun as Lamar Jackson has been so far, he’s not quite at the level of Patrick Mahomes just yet although a good performance here would send his stock skyrocketing. It’s hard to see him going into Arrowhead and out duelling the Chiefs, but I do think he can at least keep pace with them and keep it close. With these two offences set to go off, we’ll also take the over.  

Dallas Cowboys v Miami Dolphins
SGM: Dallas to Cover -22.5 & Ezekiel Elliot to Score 3+ Touchdowns

That’s it, that will be the last time the Dolphins get anything close to the benefit of the doubt. They are a dreadful excuse for a team and they also have traded away one of the very few bright spots on defence. Dallas has been a sneaky strong team in the opening two weeks and their offensive triplets are looking ready to take off for a big season. While Dak Prescott and Amari Cooper are still going for new deals, it will be the guy who has earned his money already starring here and I’ll go big and take Zeke to score three touchdowns against this putrid Miami outfit.

Indianapolis Colts v Atlanta Falcons
Colts to Cover -4.5 (Alt Line) @ $2.40

Both of these sides have something to prove in this game, with both looking to move to 2-1. The Falcons did enough to beat Philadelphia at home last week while the Colts got by the Titans in Tennessee in spite of Adam Vinatieri’s case of the yips. It’s fair to say that while the Colts do miss Andrew Luck, his replacement Jacoby Brissett is doing a pretty good job making the role his own, and Frank Reich is coaching around his limitations well. Marlon Mack should be in for a good game as well on the ground for the Colts but instead of looking at the player performance market, I’ll tease the Colts out to -4.5 on the alternate line and back them to cover that. 

Arizona Cardinals v Carolina Panthers
Arizona by 1-13

There’s plenty of questions over Cam Newton’s availability for this one but it does beg the question, with the way he’s played so far this season, is him being on the field actually helpful for the Panthers? It sure looks like he’s going to miss the game, at least according to the market, it’s the only explanation as to why Arizona is favoured though. Kyler Murray could be set for his first career win here although with the way the Cardinals have looked so far, they won’t do it the easy way.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers v New York Giants
Tampa -6 & Under 47.5 @ $3.90

Rejoice Giants fans, the Daniel Jones era gets started this weekend in Tampa. Unfortunately for him, the rookie’s supporting cast seem unlikely to give him the necessary assistance with a patchwork receiving corps. Tampa’s defence has made good strides with Todd Bowles coordinating and they should be able to give the rookie a hard enough time that he can’t get the job done also reducing the stress on Jameis Winston.

Los Angeles Chargers v Houston Texans
Texans to Win @ $2.50

Houston is one of those sides that seems to play to the level of their competition, which is a good sign for this weekend since the Chargers are a good opponent. It would be a great time for JJ Watt to remind everyone of just how good he can be and wreak havoc on LA’s offensive line and pitch in with a couple of sacks and maybe a forced fumble or two. While Deshaun Watson is still running for dear life despite the trade for Laremy Tunsil, the rest of the team is healthy enough, and he can go to the tandem of Duke Johnson and Carlos Hyde enough to keep the Chargers off balance and generate enough offence to out duel Phillip Rivers.

Seattle Seahawks v New Orleans Saints
SGM: Seattle by 14+ & Over 45

This game could have been so much fun, but alas Drew Brees is stuck on the sideline ready to hitchhike wherever he needs to go post thumb surgery. Seattle is dealing with a few injuries of its own but I do like Russell Wilson to create some magic here and push the Seahawks out towards 30 points. While Sean Payton will come up with a good gameplan to maximise the skill sets of his Brees replacements, it’s hard to see Teddy Bridgewater and/or Taysom Hill having a good enough performance to keep up and get them anywhere above 14 points.

San Francisco 49ers v Pittsburgh Steelers
SGM: 49ers to Cover -6.5, Matt Breida and Marquise Goodwin Anytime TD Scorers

Now for the next game that could have been so much more fun. The 49ers were a joy to take in last week in their trouncing of Cincinnati and it sure looks like that team is only going to go from strength to strength. Pittsburgh on the other hand may be high on Mason Rudolph who is now, for better or worse, the starting QB in place of Ben Roethlisberger, but I’m not. You would think that Jimmy Garoppolo would be making a few calls this week to old teammate and PHD in dissecting the Steelers defence Tom Brady for a few pointers for this week. Chances are that new acquisition Minkah Fitzpatrick won’t be able to come in and make a huge impact early on so I’ll back a 49ers focused Same Game Multi.

Cleveland Browns v Los Angeles Rams
SGM: Rams to Cover -3 & Todd Gurley Anytime TD

Welcome to bizzaro world where the Browns are a big enough draw to host a primetime game in consecutive weeks. They didn’t look all that great beating the Jets last week but, they didn’t really need to do anything special. This time around though, they have a huge test on their hands in the form of the LA Rams who put together a methodical win over the Brees-less Saints. I’ll back the Rams to put together another performance like that to hand them another victory here with Todd Gurley finding the end zone.

Washington Redskins v Chicago Bears
Bears to Cover -4.5 & Under 41.5 @ $3.80

You’d be crazy to think that the Bears had some sort of miracle breakthrough on offence last week but for the first time in what feels like forever, they can have some faith in their kicker. The good news is they won’t need a whole lot of offence to take care of Washington in the final Week 3 game who has looked well below average to start the season. The Bears defence should be able to have their way with Washington’s pieced together offence and hold them below 10 points to help them to a comfortable win.