US Open – Day 5

David Goffin vs Pablo Carreno Busta
Over 36.5 Games

David Goffin

The talented Belgian has had a mixed campaign, although still enters this tournament as the #15 seed. He is 26-19 in singles matches this year, failing to win a title so far. His path to the 3rd round has been relatively straightforward, dropping only a single set. His career record at Flushing Meadows is relatively poor, going just 10-7 in his prior attempts.

Pablo Carreno Busta

The veteran Spaniard continues to hang around on tour, currently ranked #69 in the world. He has had an indifferent 2019, going 15-15 in singles matches with 0 titles. He managed an impressive upset of #18 seed Guido Pella in round 1, taking care of Berankis in 4 hard-fought sets last time out. The US Open is historically his best grand slam, boasting an 11-5 record before this year.

Prediction: Over 36.5 Games

Despite PCB’s recent fall in the rankings, he’s still a very competitive player on tour. Goffin isn’t having his best season and I expect this match to be closer than the oddsmakers. I’m predicting a tough 4-setter in this one, without too many service breaks. Assuming we get a tie-break or two thrown in, over 36.5 looks like a solid play.

Stan Wawrinka vs Paolo Lorenzi
Lorenzi +8.5 Games

Stan Wawrinka

Although at the tail end of his career, the Stanimal still enters this tournament as the #23 seed. His 2019 has been solid but unspectacular, with a 23-16 record and a few decent finishes. He seems to struggle to close out grand slam matches in straights, winning two tough 4-setters to reach this point. He has been excellent at Flushing Meadows for his career, going 40-12 with 1 title win.

Paolo Lorenzi

Now 37 years old, the veteran Italian is still plugging away at a ranking of #135. He has sparsely competed in 2019, going just 4-9 so far. His first two matches were particularly gruelling, both resulting in epic 5-set wins. The US Open is easily his best slam, sporting a 7-7 record in his previous appearances.

Prediction: Lorenzi +8.5

Wawrinka often seems to play down to his competition in a grand slam setting. Lorenzi is as competitive as they come and I expect him to make things difficult on Stan here. Despite being a heavy underdog, I think he has a good shot at winning a set here, or at least coming close. As such, the +8.5 games represents good value for what should be a relatively tight affair.