US Open – Day 3

Cristian Garin vs Alex De Minaur
Garin +5.5 Games

Cristian Garin

The young Chilean is in the midst of a very solid campaign, earning the #31 seed for this tournament. He has had undoubtedly his best year on tour, going 24-16 straight up and winning 2 titles. He is primarily a clay-courter, although he did enjoy a Round of 16 appearance at the Rogers Cup a few weeks ago. This is the first year he has made the US Open main draw, winning his opening match in 5 tight sets.

Alex De Minaur

The Demon has slipped down the rankings a little of late, just outside the seeds at #38. He is still enjoying a solid year overall, going 20-14 with 2 titles of his own. He tends to have his best success on hard court, recently winning at Atlanta and making the Round of 16 in Cincinnati. This is his 3rd appearance in the US Open main draw, going 2-2 in his 2 previous attempts.

Prediction: Garin +5.5 Games

While De Minaur is rightly favoured here, I expect this match to be closer than this handicap would suggest. Garin is a very accomplished player on tour and I can see his defence giving De Minaur some trouble. De Minaur has struggled to close out matches in straight sets of late and I’d estimate that this goes at least 4 sets. There is probably some good value on the Garin moneyline at $3.60, but I’ll take the insurance with +5.5.

Borna Coric vs Grigor Dimitrov
Over 38.5 Games

Borna Coric

The young Croat appears destined for great things, already enjoying a very strong ranking of #12. He has gone 22-15 through a relatively tough schedule, earning over $1.2 million this year. His hardcourt campaign has been relatively disappointing so far, going just 1-2 in the Rogers Cup and Cincinnati Masters. He boasts a 6-5 record overall at Flushing Meadows, boosted by a 4th Round appearance last year.

Grigor Dimitrov

The inconsistent Bulgarian has fallen to #78 in the rankings after a relatively lean spell. He is just 12-15 on tour this season, failing to win a single title. His form on hardcourt has been particularly poor, managing just 1 win in his 4 lead-up tournaments. He did impressively beat Andreas Seppi in Round 1, which could be a sign that things are set to improve.

Prediction: Over 38.5 Games

While Coric is the better of these two players, hardcourt has proven to be his worse surface so far. Dimitrov has historically done quite well at hardcourt grand slams, compiling a 32-17 combined record at the US and Oz open. As such, I’m expecting a relatively close affair between these strong competitors, one that should go at least 4 sets. Assuming both men continue