Miami Marlins
The Marlins are in the midst of another poor campaign, going just 46-81 so far. They typically win around 40% of their home games, going 26-39 on the season. They managed an impressive 19 runs in a rare win yesterday, Starlin Castro leading the way with 5 RBI. Jordan Yamamoto is slated to pitch here, going 4-4 with a 4.31 ERA so far.
Philadelphia Phillies
Philly have been solid but unspectacular so far, compiling a 66-61 record. Their road performances have somewhat let them down, going just 28-33. Bryce Harper is enjoying a strong first season in Philly, leading the squad with 24 home runs and 97 RBI. Big Zach Eflin gets the pitching start here, going 7-11 with a 4.57 ERA so far.
Prediction: Phillies $1.80
Philly are still right in the playoff mix, while Miami have nothing to play for at this time. They’ve been a poor home side all season and Yamamoto’s form has definitely slipped of late. If Eflin can deliver even an average performance here, I really like Philly at strong $1.80 odds.
San Diego Padres
The Padres are currently 4th in the NL West at 59-68. They’ve struggled at home all season, compiling a 29-34 record so far. Eric Hosmer leads the squad with 82 RBI, while Hunter Renfroe has an impressive 31 home runs. Dinelson Lamet will pitch in this one, going 2-2 with a 3.95 ERA on the campaign.
Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox currently sit 3rd in the AL East with a solid 69-61 record. They’ve been very good on the road, going 35-27 away from Fenway Park. Rafael Devers has really impressed of late, leading the clubhouse with 27 home runs and 102 RBI. Nathan Eovaldi will pitch here, going 1-0 with a 6.69 ERA through 36 innings so far.
Prediction: Red Sox $1.88
Much like with Philadelphia, I think Boston has infinitely more to play for than their opponents here. They’ve showed a ton of recent quality on offence and I expect them to get after Lamet here. Eovaldi hasn’t been great so far, although given the small sample size I’ve got no issue backing him. He can contain a relatively anaemic Padres offence, which should ultimately be enough for the $1.88 win.