AFL Round 23 Tips & Preview

AFL Round 23 Tips & Preview

So this is it – the final round of the AFL season before the Finals get underway.

With seven teams – including the mighty Brisbane Lions (proudly sponsored by Neds) booking their place in September and others fighting it out for eighth place we are still in for a weekend of some thrilling footy if the last round is anything to go by.

So many outcomes, so many possibilities – how does one break it down? 

Fortunately, we’ve cast an eye on every game in Round 23 of the AFL season with our preview. 

COLLINGWOOD v ESSENDON (MCG)
Collingwood to win by 40+ @ $3.75

With both teams to qualify for the Finals, it’ll be on for young and old between old foes the Magpies and Bombers at the MCG this Friday night.

Or will it?

Collingwood will need to win if they are any chance to finish in the top four and have found some decent form of recent with some solid wins.

Despite a horrible couple of weeks, Essendon managed to get a confidence-boosting win on the road over Freo and have cemented their place in the 2019 finals series.

The Dons have plenty to play for this Friday night and could try and get fifth or sixth spot on the ladder which would get them a home final where they have the potential to extend their 15-year finals drought in front of their adoring fans.

The thing is, the Bombers need the Gold Coast to beat GWS in order to get a home final and that’s not going to happen.

Collingwood needs to win and hope other results go their way if they are to find themselves in the top four on the weekend.

The Magpies have a lot more to play for this weekend I expect them to really turn it on against Essendon who know that either eighth or seventh spot on the ladder is where they will finish.

There’s every chance the two clubs could meet again in week one of the finals.

With that in mind, I expect the Magpies to really play at their best on Friday night and expect a similar result to what they dished up against the Crows.

Happy to take the Magpies at 40+ based on the fact Essendon know where they’ll end up, the Pies are simply a better team and will do what they can to have a top-four chance. 

sydney v st.kilda (scg)
Sydney Swans to win by 1-39 @ $2.05

It will be the end of an era for the Sydney Swans on Saturday as co-captain Kieren Jack after 14 seasons and a fine 255 game AFL career with some All-Australian selections and a 2012 premiership to go.

It’s unlikely Jarryd McVeigh will get a farewell game with his calf injury but Kieren Jack will get a worthy farewell game.

There’s also Heath Grundy and Nick Smith calling it a day. All fine servants of the Sydney Swans.

Along with this a certain man by the name of Lance “Buddy” Franklin will be playing his 300th game of AFL football.

There’s no doubt the Swans are the kind of team that has plenty of pride on the line (not just because it’s the annual pride game) and will want to finish season 2019 on a high with a look to the future with an exciting batch of youngsters.

As do St.Kilda.

The Saints have actually gone alright this season and finals were even mathematically possible up until a couple of weeks ago.

There’s a clear mood at Moorabbin that caretaker coach Brett Ratten is the man to take them forward and a win against the Swans to finish the season off would almost certainly seal the deal.

The only thing that’s stopped St.Kilda from hiring him is the fact their president is the boss of seek.com.au (this is not a joke) and they clearly want to follow the proper hiring process.

Will the Saints bring Dan Hannebry to play against his old side on Saturday? That could make things interesting.

The Saints are a team that can play some good footy and I expect this game to be a close one with both teams desperate to finish season 2020 on a high.

In saying that, the Swans farewelling a hero and Buddy playing 300 games in front of an adoring home crowd is a recipe for the Swans to cement a win. 

north melbourne v melbourne (hobart)
North Melbourne to win by 40+ @ $2.70

The Dees pathetic season couldn’t come to an end sooner and I wouldn’t be surprised if some of the players have opted to spend a few extra nights in Hobart once the game and season is done and dusted.

Melbourne have gone from a preliminary final in 2018 to finish 17th on the ladder, above the Gold Coast Suns and is a position on the ladder that didn’t even exist when the club was tanking for draft picks back in the day.

North Melbourne is a team that will want to finish the season on a high and full of confidence.

Playing at their Tassie fortress will do them a world of good and there’s every chance local boy Ben Brown could kick another 10 goals for the Kangas given how pathetic the Dees are.

geelong v carlton (gmhba stadium)
QTR by QTR Carlton/Carlton/Carlton/Geelong @ $18

Carlton and the Teague Train rolls into Kardinina Park and we find out whether it’s a Metro Train or capable of providing V/Line services to Geelong.

Train references aside, this twilight match could be interesting.

The Cats will want to win to secure the minor premiership but since winning 11 of their 12 first matches of the season they haven’t been able to string together two wins in a row since the mid-season bye.

(Geelong of course, going down to the mighty Brisbane Lions – proudly sponsored by Neds at the Gabba last week.)

Current trends suggest that the Cats are due for a win this week and are playing on their home deck so it goes without saying they are clear favourites going into this game.

You’d think Geelong would want to finish on top but if other results go the way as expected they’ll book a “home” qualifying final at the MCG against Richmond.

Some ardent Cats fans on the fan forums and Twitter wouldn’t mind them “tanking” this one.

It won’t happen.

But I do think based on form in the second half of the season Carlton is actually a chance to match the Cats.

They stretched West Coast and Richmond in previous matches and had a great win over the Saints last weekend.

I’m going for Carlton to scare the Cats, only for Geelong to get the job done in the last quarter on their home deck.

Expect Chris Scott to think the likes of Cripps, Walsh, Murphy and possibly Daisy in his final game to have zero impact on the game in his post-game press conference no matter the outcome. It’s a shame the AFL won’t let us do a market on it.

gold coast suns v gws giants (metricon stadium)
QTR BY QTR - Gold Coast Suns/GWS Giants/GWS Giants/GWS Giants @ $8.50

If you are spending your Saturday night watching the Gold Coast v GWS game you really need to reconsider what your priorities in life are.

The Cricket is on the other channel, Eagles v Hawks is far more interesting a matchup and perhaps go and spend quality time with family and friends or something.

This game is beyond a dead-rubber.

In fact, it’s disrespectful to dead-rubbers.

We could also see the lowest crowd in recent AFL history at Metricon Stadium.

The Suns would be best to either throw the gates open, allowing fans to listen to the coaches huddle local footy style and even pay you $50 just for coming.

GWS have had a shocking couple of weeks (including being the first team to not score a goal in the second half of a match for the first time since University in 1911) , but will win this easily and get some much-needed percentage and a confidence boost against the Gold Coast Suns who right now would get easily beaten by stand-alone VFL teams Port Melbourne and Williamstown.

The only value I can find in this game is perhaps the Suns have a crack in the first quarter, find themselves in front and then the Giants to just get on with the job – at $8.50 there might be something in that.

west coast v hawthorn (optus stadium)
Hawthorn Line (+25.5) @ $1.90

Going into this game, the Hawks are Lloyd Christmas

“So you’re saying there’s a chance.”

There is a chance they could play in September if other results go their way and they beat the Eagles they’ll feature in the finals.

There’s a chance, but you can’t really see it happen.

Or can you?

The Hawks have proven they are capable of beating the big boys and Clarko is a coaching genius and very capable of pulling a rabbit out his hat.

Will Roughy get another game after booting six in his “farewell” game against the Suns last week?

West Coast has come off a loss to the Tigers in one of the games of the year and the Hawks are not the kind of team to give them a percentage booster and can expect a trip to the Gabba to take on Brisbane.

The line in this match gives Hawthorn a sniff and given how they’ve played against the ladder leaders this season, expect them to get close to the Eagles.

western bulldogs v adeladie (ballarat)
Western Bulldogs to win by 40+ @ $3.35

It’s pretty simple for the Bulldogs in Ballarat – win they are in it.

The finals that is.

The Dogs have belted Essendon and GWS two weeks running and no one really wants to finish fifth and face them in a final.

Everyone but Tex Walker knows that Adelaide is not worthy of finals and are a wreck of a Football Club.

The Western Bulldogs will smash them and the Crows were nothing short of pathetic against the Crows.

Adelaide’s season 2019 needs to be put out of its misery and quickly.

Facing the Doggies at Ballarat should do just that.

Sorry Tex, your finals hopes are Fetch – it’s not going to happen.

richmond v brisbane lions (mcg)
Brisbane Lions LINE (+14.5) $1.90

The MCG hosts yet another matinee finals performance as the mighty Brisbane Lions (proudly sponsored by Neds) takes on Richmond.

Going into this game, both teams go into it not having lost a game since their respective mid-season bye and both teams played in the games of the season last weekend.

Coming back from four goals down, Richmond grinded out a famous victory over West Coast by one goal and the Lions one-point win over Geelong was a game for the ages.

Brisbane have a top-two spot basically stitched up and if they beat the Tigers they can add the Dr.McLelland trophy for the first time in the history of the merged club and it can sit proudly alongside their 2018 AFLX trophy.

This is only the second game for the Lions at the G for season 2019 and they’ll want to not only get a win at the home of football (they lost to the Dons there in Round 4 by 47 points).

Brisbane has also not beaten Richmond since Round 7, 2009.

They’ve smashed a few hoodoos this magical season and there’s no doubt they’ll want to smash this one in front of a rabid Tiger Army at the MCG.

Charlie Cameron, who according to Geelong coach Chris Scott had no impact with five-goals against the Cats last week will obviously need to lift. 

If results go the way of Collingwood beating Essendon, the Tigers will be fifth on the ladder and will need to beat Brisbane to ensure a top-four position.

If last week’s clashes between both sides were anything to go by expect a thriller and the Lions to be right up there with a chance until the final siren.

best bet
port adelaide v fremantle (adelaide oval)
Fremantle H2H @ $3

Unless a number of results go a certain way, which it won’t, the final home and away game for the 2019 AFL season will be two teams playing for pride.

But all bets are off given the fact Freo gave Ross Lyon the heave-ho.

Sack the coach, win the next week.

It’s pretty simple reasoning on this tip.

Perhaps Port do the same thing with Ken Hinkley to make it interesting?

Otherwise, Freo at $3 is my best bet for Round 23. 

If Port end up sacking Ken Hinkley later in the week, back the Draw at $61.