The fourth and final grand slam of 2019 is now less than a week away. All eyes in the tennis world will be on New York for what appears to be a very exciting US Open. Novak Djokovic is currently the red hot $2.20 favourite, although Nadal ($4.50) and Federer ($7.50) are given outside chances by the oddsmakers. We’ll go through each of the top 5 contenders in the men’s draw and analyse where the value lies.
Novak Djokovic $2.20 (Best Bet)
Novak enters the US Open off the back of an excellent campaign, compiling a 38-7 record and 2 grand slam titles. He has played just one tournament since Wimbledon, losing in the Semi-Finals to rising Russian Daniil Medvedev. He has historically been very strong at Flushing Meadows, compiling a 69-10 record and winning it 3 times. Given his tremendous form and the lack of a consistent challenger, I like him to take the title here at strong odds of $2.20.
Rafael Nadal $4.50
Nadal has also been incredibly impressive in his age 33 season, compiling a 41-6 singles record and 3 ATP titles. He enters this tournament in the best possible form, winning the Rogers Cup a fortnight ago and dropping only 1 set in the process. The US Open is Nadal’s second-best grand slam historically, going 58-11 with 3 titles, including one in 2017. While he stands a good chance if Novak goes out early, I just can’t see him beating Novak in a best of 5 on this surface.
Roger Federer $7.50
Federer rounds out what has been another phenomenal year for the big 3, going 39-6 with 3 titles of his own. He hasn’t managed a grand slam this year, although he was incredibly unlucky not to take Novak at Wimbledon. He does have 5 title wins and an 87% win percentage at the US Open, although he hasn’t won it since 2008. He has looked more vulnerable against high-level opponents this year and I don’t see a fairy tale win, even at $7.50.
Daniil Medvedev $13
Daniil Medvedev is in the midst of the best season of his career, going 44-16 with 2 titles to earn a top 5 ranking. He has been outstanding during this hardcourt season, making 3 straight finals and registering wins over Thiem, Khachanov, and Djokovic. His experience at Flushing Meadows is minimal to say the least, compiling a 2-2 record in 3 attempts. Without having reached the second week of a grand slam before, I just don’t see him edging the big 3 here.
Nick Kyrgios $41
The mercurial Aussie has had a surprisingly solid campaign, going 19-12 and returning to the world’s top 30. The highlight of his season was undoubtedly the win at Washington a month ago, beating the aforementioned Medvedev in the process. He has never really taken off at the US Open, compiling just a 6-6 record. Even at $41, I just can’t see Nick doing it over 2 weeks in best of 5 action. The only value I see here is a potential hedge later on if he gets a kind draw.