Wimbledon – Women’s Final Tips

Serena Williams vs Simona Halep, 11 pm
Halep +3.5 Games

Serena Williams

Williams was absolutely dominant in her Semi Final win, demolishing Barbora Strycova 6-1 6-2 to comfortably cover the -4.5. She won 89% of points on her first serve and went 4/5 on break point opportunities. She has excellent pedigree at Wimbledon, now going 98-11 in WTA singles matches. Importantly, she also enters this final very well rested, dropping just 2 sets so far.

Simona Halep

Halep was arguably even more impressive in her Semi, taking care of a better opponent in Elina Svitolina. She got her first serve in a very solid 74% of the time, winning 5 of her 8 break point opportunities. Halep hasn’t dropped a set since the second round, looking very comfortable in the process. Her Wimbledon record isn’t at Serena’s level, going just 17-8 prior to this tournament.

Prediction: Halep +3.5 Games

Serena simply isn’t the consistent reliable force that she once was. She hasn’t won a grand slam in the past 2.5 years and there has been a noticeable drop off in her game. Halep enters this contest in excellent form, putting on a clinical display against a very strong opponent in the semis. I think her movement, defence, and reliable first serve can really trouble Serena here. She is definitely a live underdog, but I’ll opt for the safe route of +3.5 games.

Over 21.5 Games

While Serena is still capable of overpowering most of her WTA opponents, I can’t see Halep allowing that to happen. Her return game has been on fire all tournament and her consistent serve has emerged as a surprisingly reliable weapon. These two players are very well matched and I can easily see two close sets or a 3-setter. This also ties in nicely with my above play, as a Halep cover correlates strongly with over 21.5 games.