Wimbledon – Men’s Semi Finals

Rafael Nadal vs Roger Federer
Federer $2.10

Rafael Nadal

Nadal breezes into the semis after a very comfortable win over Sam Querrey last time out. The Spaniard was excellent in both facets of the game, winning 82% of points on first serve and breaking the American’s serve 6 times. This continues what has been a very impressive tournament for Nadal so far, only dropping 1 set to Aussie Nick Kyrgios. While his game isn’t necessarily suited to Wimbledon, he still boasts an outstanding 53-11 career record at the All England Club.

Roger Federer

After a first set scare, Federer delivered 3 straight sets of excellent tennis to take care of Kei Nishikori. He was able to win over 80% of points on his first serve, claiming 4 breaks of serve om the other end. Federer has dropped just 2 sets all tournament, taking care of 3 seeded players in the process. He now has 100 wins in his Wimbledon career and has enjoyed his fair share of success against Nadal.

Prediction: Federer $2.10

If you take away their clay court matchups, Federer has historically performed very well against Nadal. The grass court of Wimbledon suits his game perfectly, while Nadal just doesn’t get the same advantages. Even at almost 38 years of age, Roger has the power and athleticism to get things done at the top level. In what should be a very tight affair, I expect his strong serve and ability to win the big points to carry him through.

Novak Djokovic vs Roberto Bautista Agut
Djokovic 1st Set 6-4

Novak Djokovic

Djokovic looked very comfortable in the quarters last time out, taking care of David Goffin in 3 relatively easy sets. Djokovic has dropped just 1 set all tournament and enters the Semis in excellent form. His return game has been particularly on point, averaging 6 breaks of serve throughout the tournament. As the reining Wimbledon champion, he now boasts an elite 70-10 record at the All England Club.

Roberto Bautista Agut

RBA deserves a ton of credit for reaching the Semis, taking care of 3 seeds in the process. He has dropped just 1 set all tournament and appears to be in career-best form. He is winning around 75% of his points on first serve, breaking his opponent an average of 5 times per match so far. That said, Wimbledon is not necessarily his best surface and he has struggled against Djokovic throughout his career.

Prediction: Djokovic 1st set 6-4 $4.50

In a matchup without much value in the traditional markets, I’ve tried to get creative in this one. RBA enters this one in excellent form and deserves the appropriate respect in the betting markets. He has typically served first in matches throughout the tournament, while Novak often elects to receive. A very likely outcome here is RBA to serve first and Novak to manage one break of serve, leading to a 6-4 1st set win. As a hedge, 6-3 at $4.15 also represents decent value and follows the same line of thinking.