The Djoker enters this one in some very solid form, disposing of Roberto Bautista Agut in 4 sets last time out. He won 77% of points on his first serve and managed to break on 5 of his 8 opportunities. He has been largely stellar in this tournament so far, dropping only his second set over the past fortnight. Wimbledon has been a very happy hunting ground for Novak and he certainly knows how to use the conditions to his strength.
The Fed Express makes yet another final after a clash to remember with Nadal last time out. Federer’s excellent serve carried him through the match, racking up 14 aces while only allowing Nadal to break twice. He got some very good practice in the lead up to this tournament, winning the ATP 500 in Halle while dropping just 2 sets in the process. Now boasting an epic 101-12 career record at Wimbledon, the soon-to-be 38-year-old is definitely a force on grass.
Prediction: Djokovic -2.5 Games
While Federer was very impressive last time out, Novak just appears to be playing on another level right now. His serve has been impeccable throughout the tournament and his excellent movement is making things that much tougher for his opponents. I think he can somewhat nullify Fed’s serve in this one, registering key break points as he takes this in a tight one. The moneyline odds are begging you to take Fed, but I really like Novak at this high-value low-margin handicap.
Even with Novak’s impressive form, he hasn’t been perfect this tournament. RBA took a set off him in their last matchup and I can see Roger doing the same here. The evenly matched nature of this match means we’ll likely see a tie-break or two that could ultimately go either way. Lining up with our above handicap bet, the best value spread market has to be Djokovic in 4 at $4 to 1.