Wimbledon – Day 6

Joao Sousa vs Daniel Evans
Over 38.5 Games

Joao Sousa

The veteran from Portugal continues to put up some decent results on tour, entering this tournament as world #69 (obligatory ‘nice’). He has had a very strong run to the 3rd round, dropping just 1 set in a tie-break and defeating Marin Cilic in straights. Known as more of a clay-court specialist, the conditions at Wimbledon don’t necessarily help his game.

Daniel Evans

Dan Evans has had a similar career trajectory to Sousa, having settled around the 60’s in the rankings. He has had a mediocre 2019 to date, going 8-8 in ATP singles matches prior to Wimbledon. He definitely appears to be enjoying a hometown boost, winning his first 2 matches in straight sets.

Prediction: Over 38.5 Games

These are two relatively evenly matched men that both enter this match in impressive form. As such, I’m expecting a tight affair that should go 4 or 5 sets. With neither possessing an elite return game, I predict a tie-break or two that should take this total over 38.5.

Jan Lennard Struff vs Mikhail Kukushkin
Over 37.5 Games

Jan Lennard Struff

After a relatively strong campaign, Struff enters Wimbledon as the very rare #33 seed. He has had a ton of action in 2019 so far, going 24-15 in ATP singles matches. His Wimbledon campaign got off to a flyer, beating Radu Albot in straights and convincingly beating Taylor Fritz in 4.

Mikhail Kukushkin

Despite a relatively poor start to 2019, Kukushkin still entered Wimbledon with a very solid ranking of 58. He shocked a lot of people with his round 2 performance, where he got the best of John Isner in 5 sets. Renowned for his excellent physical condition, I expect him to be fully recovered in time for this one.

Prediction: Over 37.5 Games

While Struff is a solid player, he lacks the consistency to pull off regular straight set wins. A veteran like Kukushkin makes you earn every point and I expect this to be another competitive affair. This number is just too low if the match goes to 4 sets or more, making me really value the over.

Kei Nishikori vs Steve Johnson
Johnson +5.5 Games

Kei Nishikori

Despite a relatively inconsistent last few years, Nishikori still enters this tournament as the #8 seed. He has had a stellar 2019 to date, going 25-10 in singles matches and claiming 1 title. His path to the 3rd round has been very comfortable, yet to drop a set so far.

Steve Johnson

A few lean seasons have brought the big-serving American back to a world ranking of #71. He looked excellent in his second round match, beating Aussie #25 seed Alex de Minaur in 5 sets as an outright underdog. The grass court conditions really suit his style of play, which will be very welcomed against Nishikori here.

Prediction: Johnson +5.5 Games

I thought Johnson was undervalued against de Minaur last time out and continue to think he is in this spot. Grass courts don’t play to Nishikori’s strengths and he has been notoriously inconsistent in early grand slam matches. Johnson is definitely a live underdog in this one, but I like the +5.5 games in what should be a tightly contested affair.