AFL Round 16 Tips & Preview

Much like the Masterchef kitchen, AFL round 16 is set to whip up some absolutely tantalizing, tasty and even some nutritious betting prospects.

Featuring the likes of the SA Showdown, the WA Derby and of course the much talked about blockbuster between GWS and the mighty Brisbane Lions (proudly sponsored by Neds) you’ll be stuffed full of footy goodness (and hopefully a few winners) from Friday night ‘till Sunday.

Our round 16 preview gives you an insight as to what you can expect from this weekend in the AFL.

HAWTHORN v COLLINGWOOD (MCG)
Collingwood 1-39 points @ $2.02

Collingwood had a Ben Cunnington of a night against North last week and the Hawks dominated in the second half only to have a late Jamie Cripps goal deny them any chance of pinching a draw against the Eagles.

Purely based on last weeks performance, Hawthorn is the better team going into this clash.

Collingwood, who are coming off playing two weeks in a row at Marvel Stadium, will welcome a return to the MCG, but will the good Collingwood show up as well?

The past fortnight the Magpies have been rather ordinary and they should consider themselves lucky they even got a win against the Dogs.

They were woeful against North Melbourne and Adam Treloar has been the Magpies only good player of recent.

In saying that, it’s not crisis time for Collingwood and while Hawthorn showed some fighting spirt, I still trust the Pies can simply get the job done in this one.

It is second on the ladder playing 15th after all.

ESSENDON v SYDNEY (MCG)
HT/FT - Sydney/Essendon @ $6.50

Both the Bombers and the Swans will want to climb the ladder, but hopefully, none of them will be found climbing the goal posts at the MCG.

For the second time in less than two months, the Bombers find themselves taking on the Swans.

Essendon comes off a sensational win over the Giants, with Cale Hooker saving the day, whilst the Swans have found their groove and somehow, remain a mathematical chance of making finals.

Score review scandals aside, the Bombers victory against GWS was mighty impressive.

19 points down early in the fourth quarter and then kicking six of the final five goals to win the game is going to be a serious confidence booster for the Bombers who yet again are travelling down the path of mediocrity, so they’ll need to back it up against the Swans.

Can they do it?

Yes.

Sydney has hit a purple patch of form of recent, but there’s more on the line for the Bombers and they should be able to keep their hopes of losing another Elimination Final come September alive at the end of this game, whilst the Swans can plan their end of season trip.

best bet
GOLD COAST SUNS v RICHMOND (METRICON)
QTR BY QTR: GC/RICH/RICH/RICH @$8

Richmond travels to Metricon Stadium to take on their feeder club the Gold Coast Suns in the Tom Lynch Cup (along with the Dion Prestia medal, Josh Caddy encouragement award and Anthony Miles Certificate).

The Tigers got back seven players from injury and a much needed 33 point win against a somewhat persistent St.Kilda at Marvel Stadium.

Dustin Martin is back to his best, Dion Prestia and Kane Lambert are also finding plenty of the football and the Tiger young guns of Sydney Stack (who is the greatest steal in AFL draft history) and Maboir Chol are really proving their worth.

When the two teams last met in Round 21 last year, Jack Riewoldt booted 10 goals as the Tigers thrashed the Suns by 74 points.

Whilst Jack won’t be playing in this game, it would be somewhat ironic if Tom Lynch did the same thing against his old side.

He won’t hear any booing from the crowd either, the ground will be packed with about 90% Richmond fans.

It’s also the Tigers last game outside of the MCG quite possibly for the rest of the season.

The Suns are good starters, and them being in front at quarter-time only to fade away has been the trend for them in 2019.

With that in mind the quarter by quarter bet with the Suns leading at Quarter time and Richmond, the rest makes for excellent value and is my best bet for Round 16.

ADELAIDE v PORT ADELAIDE (ADELAIDE OVAL)
Port Adelaide H2H @ $2.24

This is the game anyone from South Australia lives for.

The Crows who were formed out of spite for this club (look it up) take on Port Adelaide who have been the most frustrating team to back in season 2019.

Given it’s an even round, I think this is the kind of game where the good Port Adelaide shows up, you know the one that beat Geelong a couple of weeks ago?

Adelaide managed to get in the lead early against Geelong at the Cattery last week but they were simply outclassed by the best team in the competition.

For both teams, winning the Showdown is on par with winning a Grand Final.

The game will be intense, Eddie Betts will kick some ridiculous goal from his pocket (which is now the norm), Tex Walker will actually show some leadership, but Port is due to win this week.

If good Port is to show up, it’s in the Showdown but if they win many will ponder the question “WHERE WERE THEY LAST WEEK?” and you still can’t trust them. 

WESTERN BULLDOGS v GEELONG (MARVEL)
Western Bulldogs at the Line (+23.5) @ $1.90

Do you know something?

I reckon the Doggies are going to give the Cats a serious run for their and your money in this game.

Under the lid at Marvel Stadium, if the Bulldogs can make the most of their skill and hard running attack, they won’t make it easy for Geelong who is right now sitting on top, but aren’t having a laugh about it.

The Bulldogs had one of their best wins since that magical day in 2016 against Port in the wet and was unlucky to get the chocolates against second-placed Collingwood the week previous.

Geelong should win this with plenty of class and poise to their advantage, but the Dogs will make it a scrap.

Taking the Dogs line (+23.5) is worth a punt.

FREMANTLE v WEST COAST (OPTUS)
Eagles 1-39 points @ $2.20

It doesn’t get any bigger than this in WA.

The DER-by, not DAR-by, embrace the local culture.

West Coast had another thrilling last gasp win at the MCG and Fremantle comes of an embarrassing loss at the hands of Carlton.

Who will win this encounter?

Freo’s finals hopes are on the line, sitting on 8th and a big win in the DER-by will do them a world of good.

West Coast look primed now to have a serious tilt at back to back flags.

So many questions, so many things to ponder.

This is also the first time the DER-by has been Freo’s home game since the Gaff/Brayshaw incident last year, how the Dockers fans respond will be $1.01 for some of the loudest booing you’ve ever encountered in the history of Optus Stadium.

I could go on and on as to what this game means but you just want to know “Who should I back?’

West Coast.

They are simply better.

Let’s hope for another epic DER-by full of controversy for the entertainment benefit of the rest of the football public.

CARLTON v MELBOURNE (MCG)
Carlton H2H @ $3

In the past month, the Blues have become the most enjoyable team to watch in the competition whilst Melbourne have mostly been a disappointment and a bit of a letdown.

You couldn’t help but be impressed with the Blues upsetting Freo last week at Optus Stadium.

They had no Cripps, no McKay and no Charlie Curnow and no worries.

Carlton is currently playing this never say die type attitude of play and Marc Murphy’s goal with 30 odd seconds left on the clock to win the game typified it.

Melbourne should count themselves lucky that Brisbane didn’t kick straight last weekend.

The Dees found themselves ahead at half-time but the Lions ran away with the win and easily accounted for them.

This game is 16th v 17th on the ladder.

Right now, Carlton is the better team and playing for something.

Melbourne still expects it to just happen.

I’m all in on the Blues at the $3.

Da-Da-DaDa. 

NORTH MELBOURNE v ST.KILDA (HOBART)
HT/FT - St.K/NM @ $6.25

North Melbourne are a SHAW bet in this clash in Hobart.

(See what I did there?)

The Kangas were brutal and ruthless against Collingwood last week and since Rhyce Shaw took over as coach you could say they are one of the inform teams of the competition.

This no fuss, no frills with a bit of personality makes the Kangaroos football’s answer to Aldi – great value.

St.Kilda on the other hand clearly is a team that plays for the coach but can’t deliver all the time.

They put up a fight against the Tigers last week but ran short.

It’ll be the same thing this week.

The Saints will take it up to North Melbourne but fade away.

This half time/full time makes for solid punting value.

GWS GIANTS v BRISBANE LIONS (GIANTS STADIUM)
Brisbane Lions at the Line (+18.5) @ $1.90

The mighty Brisbane Lions (proudly sponsored by Neds) was sensational last week against Melbourne thanks to Eric Hipwood and his five second-half goals.

The Gabba is rocking again, the roar is back and many Lions fans are cancelling their September holidays.

They travel down to GIANTS Stadium to play the Giants funnily enough.

Can they back it up with a big win over GWS who really should be dominating the comp but aren’t?

Yes, they can.

GWS should have belted Essendon but took it easy in the last quarter, even if Shaun McKernan’s equalising goal was touched or not it was a shocking last quarter from a  team that should know better. 

If this game were at the Gabba, the Lions would be an absolute lock, but given the game is away, the Giants do play this ground well and should be able to win it.

If the Lions get up in this, there’s only one destination after this – finals football.

I’m playing it safe in this one and happy to take the Lions at the line (+18.5)

CLICK HERE for Betting On The Lion vs GWS