It might not have been through the path we expected, but the Matildas are through to the Women’s World Cup Round of 16 after finishing as Group C runners up on goal difference.
That has lead to a date with Norway in Nice for a quarter final spot after they finished as runners up in Group A behind France.
It feels like an eternity since these sides met but it was only March last year when the Matildas won 4-3 on a stoppage time goal from Larissa Crummer.
This should be a really strong test for both sides as they appear to be right on the same level as one another in the hierarchy of women’s football.
Let’s take a look at the markets for this game and find some winning plays.
Total Goals
For better or worse, with the way the Matildas are playing at the moment, there should be plenty of goals in this clash. Norway scored six goals during the group stage and conceded three with three total goals in every single match. That streak has a great chance to be broken here with the Matildas, let’s be honest, not great defensive work so far. They are yet to keep a clean sheet in this tournament and if you include pre-tournament, have conceded in their last six so the Both Teams to Score Market is worth backing, even at it’s relatively short $1.55 price. As for total goals, the over 3.5 has hit in the Matildas last two so why not back it in again at $2.60.
Goalscorers
You have to think Sam Kerr will be buzzing after her four goals against Jamaica, even against a lesser opponent, they were still very well taken opportunities. Naturally you have to drift towards her in both the First Goalscorer ($5.25) and Anytime Goalscorer ($2.30) markets and back her with some confidence. From this point on, Kerr has to be the first option in any goalscorer market in a Matildas match with daylight second. You can’t rule out a contribution from a Caitlin Foord or an Emily Gielnik but in these games you have to back the big guns to fire.
As for Norway, they are going through this tournament without reigning FIFA Ballon D’Or Feminin winner Ada Hegerberg as she is protesting by refusing to play for her national team. Without their best striker, the leading goalscorer for Norway at this World Cup is “Own Goal” with two while four other players have chipped in on the way. The likely strike pairing for this game will be Isabell Herlovsen ($7.00/$2.85) and Lisa Marie Utland ($8.00/$3.20) as they started two group games while Caroline Graham Hansen ($8.50/$3.40) might also be worth looking at as well.
The Result
In true Australian footballing fashion, there is no way the Matildas will progress in simple, straightforward fashion so you can probably rule out a big win. There’s plenty of value in the 90 minute result market but with how evenly matched these two sides appear to be, there is always the risk of extra time. Because of that I’m happy to back the draw in the 90 minutes market while also taking Australia to qualify, even if there is a bit of local bias in that pick.