Well that was (a bit) more like it as the Matildas picked up their first points of the Women’s World Cup thanks to that comeback win over Brazil.
To close out their Group C engagements, they take on Jamaica who went down to Italy 5-0 in their last outing.
There will be a little bit of scoreboard watching taking place for the Italy-Brazil match going on at the same time knowing that they could finish anywhere from first to fourth in their group
With all due respect to Jamaica this is a horrendous mismatch and anything less than a massive Matildas win would be a huge surprise, so you can pretty much rule out fourth.
Unfortunately the contest being such a huge mismatch on paper does mean that you have to scour for any sort of value in the markets here, but never fear, we will find a play or two!
We hit on the Over 3.5 Goals in the Brazil match but unfortunately, with Jamaica conceding 8 goals already this tournament, we’ll have to go a little bit higher to find some value. What you expect from Brazil-Italy might also impact your play here as the Matildas may have to chase goal difference depending on that result. If Italy wins by one, then Australia will need to win by two or win by one and outscore Brazil by at least one goal to secure second spot. However if Brazil springs an upset, the Matildas will need win by at least two goals more than whatever Brazil wins by to top Group C. If that seems like a lot of on the fly maths… well it is but what it looks like to me, is a recipe for the Australians to go on a goalscoring spree. Because of that, I’ll back over 4.5 goals in this one since I think there won’t be much choice other than going for a rugby score.
The next question is who is going to score the goals in this match? It’s not really worth looking at the Jamaican side here since you can just back the entire team to score at $3.75, if you think they can do better than they did against Brazil and Italy. Anyway back to Australia, it’s been Caitlin Foord, Chloe Logarzo and Sam Kerr (plus an own goal) tallying for Australia so far and all three are probably the leading options to score in this match. Those three are most likely the ones you will look at in the First Goalscorer market and as tempting as it is to go straight to Kerr, she’s playing a slightly different role here and ceding chances to her teammates. That’s why I’ll back Foord to pop in and score first. As for Anytime Goalscorer, this is a great opportunity to back a couple of roughies who might get in on the act late. I can’t ignore the Alanna Kennedy free kick option but I also would not be surprised to see an Elise Kellond-Knight find a way to get in on the act as well.
Alright so, Australia by how much? For any value here, you basically need to give the Matildas at least a three goal handicap which is all things considered certainly in play. Ante Milicic will instruct his players to go out and take care of their own business so I’ll back the side to put in a performance that will give them some confidence ahead of the knockout stages where ruthlessness is imperative.