Something that looks like a clear finals picture is starting to emerge in the Super Rugby competition.
Last week saw the finals hopes for three teams all but vanish and we could see a few more sides drop out of contention this weekend.
While the contenders in Australia and New Zealand are starting to pull away, all five South African Conference sides are still in the mix for a finals berth and we could still see just one side make it or all five.
There’s a lot to look forward to this weekend including some potentially season defining clashes plus a trip to Fiji for the Chiefs and Crusaders.
One of the more straightforward plays of the entire Super Rugby weekend comes from the opening game. The Blues have been a really strong side at home and the Bulls are horrendously inconsistent on the road. I can’t see the Blues winning this game by a lot, they don’t really get involved in many blowouts so I’ll back a close win for them here.
How big is the inclusion of Will Genia here? Having the Rebels scrumhalf cleared of a concussion gives them the calm presence they will need to get maximum points from this fixture. The Waratahs haven’t exactly been inspiring lately beating only the Reds in the last few weeks so I’m happy to take them on at the line as the Rebels take one step closer to a finals berth.
Over their last two games, the Sunwolves have scored a grand total of seven points so that sums up exactly what you can expect from them here. The Brumbies are probably the form team in Australia and anything less than a cover here would be a massive disappointment from their perspective. It’s a big ask to cover a two-try line when you’re a side that doesn’t score a lot but the Sunwolves have been atrocious lately and look like they’re already in end of season mode.
The Chiefs have moved this game to Suva in Fiji but as we have learned before, it doesn’t matter where the Crusaders play, they’re still pretty damn good. While they haven’t been covering the spread with the same regularity, they will easily put up 50 if the Chiefs give them the same number of chances they gave the Reds last weekend. If they pick up maximum points from this game they will secure the minor premiership and this is when they need to be playing their best rugby.
So close yet so far for the Reds, their finals hopes are pretty much gone now after failing to break down the Chiefs last week. Now they just get to play spoiler in their final three games, starting with the Jaguares who are coming into form at the right time. They’ve won six of their last seven and while I like them to beat the Reds, I do think the home side will keep this close and turn it into a real arm wrestle that could be decided by the kicking and discipline.
The Hurricanes have to be looking over their shoulders now, they’re seven points clear in the wild card race but could lock up a home final in the first round with a win here. The problem is the Sharks have been at times one of the scariest sides in the competition and need to win to keep up with the Jaguares. This looks like an even matchup so I’ll back the underdogs in a value play.
The winner of this one will be in prime position for a wild card berth, while the loser could be facing an uphill battle in the final fortnight. This has the makings of a very, very tight game but I’ll back the Lions who have been really strong at home while the Stormers haven’t travelled all that well.