Sunday, May 5

Houston Rockets vs Golden State Warriors, 10 am
Warriors $2.40

Houston Rockets

The Rockets were thoroughly outclassed in game 2 and head back home in a precarious 0-2 position. James Harden again led the way offensively, battling an eye injury to drop 29 points and 6 boards. Chris Paul played a mammoth 40 minutes in game 2, racking up 18 points, 7 boards, and 6 assists in the process. Houston also got solid production from their frontcourt, with both Clint Capela an PJ Tucker getting double-doubles.

Golden State Warriors

It was a vintage performance from Golden State in game 2 as they gained a stranglehold on this series with a home win and cover. Kevin Durant continues to be the hottest player in the NBA these playoffs, going for 29 points and 5 boards. Draymond Green also enjoyed one of his better recent performances, going for 15 points, 12 boards, and 7 assists. Andre Iguodala has been an excellent contributor to the Warriors best lineup, adding 16 points and 5 boards of his own. Throw in 20-point efforts from both Steph Curry and Klay Thompson and the Warriors best lineup has been killing it.

Prediction: Warriors $2.40

One of the most profitable playoff trends in recent years has been backing the home team down 0-2 in the series. That said, the market has begun to overreact to this trend, which hasn’t even been profitable in this post-season. Golden State is a significantly better side than Houston and I think punters haven’t realised just how important a healthy Andre Iguodala is.

The Rockets have no-one to credibly guard KD, while Draymond has been destroying everything defensively. Both Steph and Klay can also play much better, giving Golden State even more of an edge. I get the situational spot here, but I can’t recall a healthy Warriors side getting $2.40 in recent memory. I expect them to go for the throat in this matchup and ensure they close the series in 5 or less. Getting $2.40 with the healthy champs is something I just can’t pass up.

1st Half Under 112.5

This is primarily a line value play. The full game total for this is 221.5 points and I’d expect the majority of that to occur in the second half. This played out in a game 2 that was destined for the under until some late fouling. This series is definitely more defensive based than a lot of punters realise and I continue to think there is some good value on the under. I don’t mind the full game under but am definitely a fan of under in the first half with a few extra points of value.