Roland Garros – Day 6

Marketa Vondrousova vs Carla Suarez Navarro, 7 pm
Over 20.5 Games

Marketa Vondrousova

The 19-year-old Czech has burst onto the scene this year, sporting a 22-6 record in all WTA matches. She has breezed through the first 2 rounds, comfortably winning both matches in straight sets. Her power-based game is generally more suited to faster courts, although she has performed well on clay so far.

Carla Suarez Navarro

The 30-year-old Spanish veteran is still one of the grittiest players on tour, entering this tournament as the #28 seed. She has had two 3-set wins so far, pulling off infamous CSN comebacks in both. Her game is the most suited to clay of any major court, enjoying a 24-10 career record at Roland Garros.

Prediction: Over 20.5 Games

While Vondrousova is the comfortable favourite here, I expect this to be a fairly tight match. Suarez Navarro is notoriously inconsistent, with a relatively high percentage of her matches going to 3 sets. I think a 3-setter, or at least a very tight 2-setter, is on the cards again here.

Pablo Carreno Busta vs Benoit Paire, 8 pm
Over 37.5 Games

Pablo Carreno Busta

While he isn’t quite at his heights of a top 10 ranking, Carreno Busta still finds himself in the top 60 entering this tournament. He has barely played this season, registering just 4 wins, 0 of which were on clay. He lost a gritty 3-setter to Paire in Barcelona a month ago.

Benoit Paire

The veteran Frenchman is enjoying another solid campaign at his home slam, moving into the top 40 in the process. He had an epic second-round win over countryman Herbert, winning 11-9 in the 5th. His performance on clay has been very solid this season, capped off with a tournament win in Lyon last week.

Prediction: Over 37.5 Games

These two men played in Barcelona last month in what was a very tight 3-setter. They’re rather evenly matched on this surface and I expect another close contest in this one. The odds are that this definitely goes at least 4 sets, where I think over 27.5 games is very likely to cash.

Stan Wawrinka vs Grigor Dimitrov, 10:30 pm
Dimitrov +5.5 Games

Stan Wawrinka

The 34-year-old Swiss is still going strong, maintaining his rank in the top 30 with some strong recent displays. He looked very good in the second round against Garin, winning in straight sets and dropping just 5 games. He has historically been very strong at Roland Garros, winning the tournament in 2015 and going 38-13 for his career.

Grigor Dimitrov

Despite some relatively poor losses of late, a strong start to the French Open should cement Dimitrov’s status in at least the top 50. He has endured two gruelling 5-setters to start, claiming huge scalps in Janko Tipsarevic and Marin Cilic. Clay certainly hasn’t been the best surface throughout his career, only now moving to a 9-8 career record at Roland Garros.

Prediction: Dimitrov +5.5 Games

While both of these men tend to be relatively inconsistent in grand slams, I expect a close affair here. Dimitrov has the power and athleticism to trouble Stan and should take at least a set in this one. The moneyline at $3.35 does look tasty, but I’ll stick with the games handicap for extra security.