AFL Round 4 Tips & Preview

How’s your footy tipping going?

If you said “Really good” then you know nothing about football or you have an amazing insight into the future and I’d like to be your friend and spend time on the punt with you.

It’s Round 4 of the AFL and we already know a few things – West Coast is the team to beat, The Brisbane Lions (Proudly sponsored by Neds) are up and about, The Gold Coast Suns are actually alright, Melbourne is no good and it’s tough times with the injuries and suspensions at Tigerland. 

The season so far is unpredictable and everything is up in the air but perhaps, just perhaps our preview ahead of the weekend of footy can find you a winner…or nine. 

Melbourne H2H @ $2.10

The Swans and Dees look set to tear it up this Thursday night at the SCG and we mean that literally.

Given the SCG is currently hosting AFL, Rugby Union, NRL, A-League, Monster Trucks, Paddington Farmers Markets, Harness Racing and midweek mixed social Netball the turf may not be able to cope with this game.

But, alas, the match will still go ahead at the home of the Swans.

Sydney comes off a much-needed win over Carlton and will be looking to keep up their winning form against a more than disappointing Demon outfit. 

The Dees, who many had tipped to win the premiership this year, have looked no good at all this season.

Should they drop this one, their players, coaches and officials can expect more mean Tweets headed their way which should give the cheer squad plenty of material for upcoming banners.

It’s easy to just think – tip the Swans at home, the Dees are no good right now, but I beg to differ.

For you see, Sydney isn’t so great either.

They got the job done against Carlton last week but are looking old and slow.

The Swans have also lost eight of their last 12 games at the SCG giving them no home ground advantage anymore.

Melbourne ooze potential but they just expect it to happen.

This is the kind of game where it can happen for the Dees.

If Jack Viney, Max Gawn, Christian Petracca and Nathan Jones can play the hard-nosed footy and actually lead and work as a team, they should have the Swans measure.

Josh Kennedy and Luke Parker are still fairly reliable in the Swans midfield as are youngsters Isaac Heeney and Zak Jones, but they’ll need the Dees to have an off-night to restrict their scoring.

Melbourne have gotten plenty of inside 50s in the past two weeks but haven’t been able to convert, they’ll need to rely on the Dees to continue this worrying trend. 

But this has the Demons finding some form and beating their chests after a win on the road written all over it.

Collingwood by 40+ @ $2.26

Coming off another loss to their kryptonite – the West Coast Eagles, the Magpies host the Western Bulldogs who are still applying the Aloe Vera Intensive Care after being seriously burnt by the Gold Coast Suns.

Collingwood is currently 1-2.

They need to get a win quickly otherwise for all their “at least we tried in the Grand Final” off-season they will be starting the season 1-3 and struggling with the other 2018 preliminary finalists Richmond and Melbourne.

Yes, it’s only the first four rounds of the season but plenty in the media have their “Collingwood at the Crossroads” articles ready to go.

You would think that the Magpies attack of Jamie Elliot, Mason Cox, Jordan De Goey and Jaiden will be too good for the Bulldogs.

You’d expect Brodie Grundy to dominate in the middle.

It will also be fascinating to see how 2016 Bulldogs premiership player Jordan Roughead goes against his old side.

The matchup between Scott Pendlebury and Jack McRae also looks like one to watch out for.

Collingwood has too much skill and class and while the Dogs could shut them down early, they should be too good for them.

Expect the Pies to win this one and win it comfortably.

Cats by 40+ @ $3.70

“The Giants are looking good” you say?

“I reckon they might be a chance this week” you reckon?

“Cats have had an easy start.” Are you kidding?

Drop those thoughts.

If there’s one rule about tipping/punting on footy it’s never, ever tip against Geelong when playing at GMHBAKSASH Stadium (Whatever Kardinina Park is called this week)
Geelong has started the season 3-0, are coming off a 24 point win over the Crows at Adelaide Oval and have won their past eight matches at the Cattery by an average of 60 points.

Still, think the Giants are a sneaky chance?

Stop it.

Granted, they had a big win over Richmond by 49 points at home last week and Jezza Cameron is pretty good in front of goal.

But that won’t get the men in orange and charcoal over the line in Geelong.

GWS have travelled to Geelong seven times and have never won there.

Their first win at the Cattery won’t be on Saturday either.

Brisbane Lions 1-39 points @ $2.50

How bloody good is the Brisbane Lions (proudly sponsored by Neds)?

Three from three to start the season and that charge in the last quarter to get the job done over Port Adelaide was delicious as Bruce McAvaney would describe Cyril.

 Is the lid off?

Well, no but it’s been covered by some Glad Wrap just to keep things fresh.

Essendon, who have not won a final in 15 years, come off finally getting its first win for the season with a solid win over the Dees last week.

The Bombers will want to make it a 2-2 start to the season, but the mighty Brisbane Lions (proudly sponsored by Neds) will be looking to make it 4-0 for the first time since the glory days and I believe they can do it.

With the Bombers missing Shaun McKernan, they are a forward down, so if old war horses like Hodgey can keep Jake “The Package” Stringer out of the game and the Lions can quickly get the ball out of the middle, which they have been brilliant at – we’re looking at another big scoring day for the pride of Brisbane Town.

The Lions don’t get many runs on the MCG and will want to make the most of it.

Expect Cam Rayner to play a blinder, Eric Hipwood to kick another bag and the Lions to make it a fabulous four on the trot to start season 2019. 

Port Adelaide to win by 40+ @ $2.85

If Port Adelaide drop this one, then you can never trust them again.

The Power had control of the game against the Brisbane Lions (proudly sponsored by Neds) but failed to keep it up allowing the Lions to kick themselves resulting in a 17 point loss to Port Adelaide.

With Richmond missing Martin, Riewoldt, Rance and Cotchin that’s nearly 1000 games experience, two Brownlow medalists, All-Australians, Coleman and Norm Smtih winners are out of the team.

If Richmond wins this, it’ll be their biggest win since the 2017 Grand Final.

It’s the first time since 2010 that Richmond hasn’t played a game without their fab four playing.

The injury-stricken Tigers were in the game for about three and a half quarters but were outmuscled by the Giants going down by 49 points.

Port will want to make it up for a disappointing loss last week and this presents the perfect opportunity for them to get a solid win on the board.

Hang in there Tiger fans, she’s tough times but it is only Round 4.  

North Melbourne H2H @ $2.30

This hardly has the billing of the Wayne Carey-Anthony Stevens adultery grudge match from back in the day, but it should still be a fascinating matchup at Marvel Stadium this Saturday night.

North Melbourne have started the season Owen-3 and it’s a chance for them to finally chalk a win up on the board.

Adelaide on the other hand, look no good.

Everyone has considered them to be back all guns blazing this year, but alas, it hasn’t happened so far.

So far for the Crows, there was a so-so win over the Swans at the SCG and a couple of beatings at what was once their home fortress Adelaide Oval.

It sounds simple, but if North Melbourne are to win this they need to play four solid quarters of football and not just start well.

If they do that, they’ll get the job done on Adelaide who is still broken from the 2017 Grand Final and pre-season camps. 

West Coast Eagles against the line (-35.5) @ $1.90

Ahh, the Western DER-by, not DAR-by, DER-by.

Anyone from Perth will tell you that.

There’s never a dull moment in these games.

Who can forget the last time these two teams met when Andrew Gaff clocked Freo’s Andrew Brayshaw in the jaw, or Dale Kickett going to town on the entire West Coast Eagles organisation back in the Demolition Derby of 2000?

Freo considers the DER-by their Grand Final.

But they aren’t winning this one.

After going down to the Brisbane Lions (proudly sponsored by Neds) in Round 1, the Eagles have been on the charge and look the goods.

They’ll control the game and make Freo struggle to hit the scoreboard.

The Eagles should win by plenty.

Gold Coast Suns to win by 1-39 @ $2.20

Queensland is now an Aussie Rules state and the Gold Coast Suns is the hottest ticket in town.

This was never in doubt.

The Suns have the perfect opportunity to make it a 3-1 start to season 2019 over Carlton in front of their adoring home fans at Metricon Stadium this Sunday.

Gold Coast have had a friendly draw and have made the most of it before they start playing some more difficult opponents.

If big Alex Sexton can kick a bag and Jarrod Witts can get the job done in the ruck, the Suns will be on their way to dish out another honourable loss to Carlton.

Should the Blues go down in this one, the knives will be out at Princes Park, they desperately need this win but the Gold Coast Suns have something they haven’t had before – belief and purpose.

St.Kilda H2H @ $3

For those of us old enough to remember, this game was once the clash of Waverley Park co-tenants.

Ahh, those were the days.

The Saints have had a pretty good start to the season and the mood down at Moorabbin is quite positive.

We all thought they’d be shit.

They’ve been in every game so far this season and almost rolled the Dockers in Perth last week. 

The Hawks are 2-1 and have that freakish stat of scoring a total of 87 points three weeks on the trot.

Chad Wingard is looking like a vital asset for the Hawks and is the kind of player that will win the game off his own boot, much like last week. 

Hawthorn started poorly against North Melbourne and finished strongly. 

They can’ t rely on doing that against St.Kilda but if Roughy is back in, they’ll have no trouble against a gallant Saints.