If the Newmarket Handicap is a dartboard then surely Monday’s Group 2 Adelaide Cup is… also full of live chances.
Staying races are frequently a tough prospect to analyse from a betting perspective, but particularly when they are run at two miles and you’re not sure if any of them are really going to get the trip.
There’s a case to be made for nearly every horse in the capacity field of 20 for Monday afternoon’s feature race and I’ve now run out of ways to paraphrase ‘there’s lots of winning chances.’
Wide barriers really aren’t a concern for mine in long staying tests and I think that Top Of The Range is ready to run a big race. The five-year-old has been up and racing for a while, but like me he’s only improving with time and hit the line well to finish third in the Listed Roy Higgins last week. He’s untested at the two miles but does look like a horse that will see it out.
Ordinarily I’d be happy to pot a Tasmania-trained horse in a race like this one, but Eastender has been airborne this time and will take a power of beating, if he sees out the trip with topweight. He dusted himself off from a pretty long break with a credible run over a mile for second at Devonport in December and has won each of his four most-recent starts, including both the Hobart and Launceston Cups. Froggy Newitt stays in the saddle and will give the horse every chance.
I think that it would be hilarious that if after all the years Darren Weir was unable to saddle this horse to a win (he finally did again, obviously), he arrives at the Maher & Eustace stable and wins two black type races in a row. Bondeiger is as tough as they come and his win in the Group 3 Lord Reims last week was as good as anything he’s done before. He’s rock-hard fit and ready for another big run.
I’m partial to anything sired by Frankel and while that has stung me more often than not (thinking about that one Robbie Laing has), I think Franked looks a legitimate lightweight chance in the Adelaide Cup. He recorded a dominant win over a mile and a half here at Morphettville a couple of weeks ago and Jamie Kah is a positive booking to ride.