Ashley Barty
As predicted before her Round 3 clash, the young Aussie had her way with Maria Sakkari, dropping just 6 games en route to a straight sets win. Barty has been in fine form all tournament and hasn’t looked close to dropping a set. Her serve has been particularly strong, dropping 13 aces against Sakkari. Coming off a Final appearance in Sydney last week, Barty enters this one in fine form.
Maria Sharapova
Still going strong at age 31, the #30 seed enjoyed a win over #3 Caroline Wozniacki last time out. Sharapova impressed in the return game, winning 44 points on the usually strong serve of Wozniacki. Having retired hurt in Shenzen a fortnight ago, a minor concern surrounds how fit she’ll be after a tough 3-setter.
Prediction: Sharapova +2.5 games
I think Sharapova is still the better player in this matchup and shouldn’t be getting 3.5 games. She showed her immense quality with a great win over Wozniacki last time out. In a game where the lights shine brightest, I expect Sharapova to at least cover this line, if not win outright.
Frances Tiafoe
Another Tiafoe match, another bet. I’ve been impressed with this young man’s recent form and continue to think he’s somewhat undervalued by the bookies. He backed up his win over Kevin Anderson with an epic 5-set comeback over Andreas Seppi last time out. His serve continues to be a real weapon, winning 80% of points on first serve.
Grigor Dimitrov
The #20 seed enters this matchup after 3 solid victories, including a straight sets win last time out. He started the season with a solid run in Brisbane before falling to Kei Nishikori in the Quarter-Finals. It was a middling 2018 for Grigor, enjoying only 24 ATP wins to 19 losses. With a potential Quarter Final against Nadal looming, expect a strong effort from Dimitrov here.
Prediction: Over 38.5 games
Ultimately, I think this one goes at least 4 or 5 sets. With how these two men have been serving so far, this makes me highly confident in over 38.5. Dimitrov should get the job done, but Tiafoe definitely won’t make it easy for him.
Roger Federer
The Fed Express has breezed through his first 3 matches, not dropping a set so far. His serve has again been excellent, serving double-digit aces each match and winning 83% or more points on first serve. 2018 was another excellent campaign for Roger, winning 48 matches and losing just 10. I expect the gap in class to be too much here.
Stefanos Tsitsipas
The #14 seed clinched a spot in the 4th round with a solid 4 set victory over Basilashvili last time out. His serve is also one of the best on tour, enjoying 18 aces to just 1 double fault in Round 3. He stirred up some controversy with a foul-mouthed rant last time out and may struggle in the Federer crucible.
Prediction: Federer -5.5 games
Whilst Tsitsipas is one to watch in future, Roger still enjoys a significant talent advantage. I expect Roger to win the key points and take this in 3 or 4. Given the mental frailty of Tsitsipas, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 6-1 set or two.
Angelique Kerber looks a near lock at $1.14 to take out her match, whilst Rafael Nadal has enjoyed sustained dominanace over Tomas Berdych throughout his career. I’ve touched on why Federer should have no issues with Tsitsipas, whilst the inclusion of Dimitrov really bumps up this price nicely.