NFL Week 17 Tips & Preview

NFL Week 17 Tips & Preview

After what has been an incredibly quick 4 months of action, we now find ourselves preparing for the final week of the NFL season. It has been a breathtaking ride so far, with plenty of surprises along the way. New stars like Patrick Mahomes and Baker Mayfield have emerged, whilst veterans like Drew Brees and Tom Brady still remain firmly in the playoff picture. Whilst many teams have already had their season outcomes decided, there are still plenty that have playoff positioning to play for in Week 17. In our biggest Sunday NFL slate of the season, let’s look at our thoughts and recommended bets on each game, with a tasty 4-leg multi thrown in for good measure.

Buffalo vs Miami | Monday, December 31, 5 am (AEDT), New Era Field
Bills -3

Buffalo Bills The Bills enter this one at 5-10 after an unsurprising loss in New England last week. QB Josh Allen struggled in this one, completing only 20/41 passes for 2 interceptions and an average of 5.3 yards per attempt. The rushing attack also struggled to get going, the two Running Backs combining for just 42 yards. Defensively, it was another mixed bag for Buffalo. The pass defence was phenomenal, forcing 2 interceptions and limiting Tom Brady to just 126 yards. The rush defence struggled immensely however, giving up 273 yards and 2 touchdowns. Against an anaemic Dolphins offence, I expect a better display in this one. Miami Dolphins The Dolphins were officially eliminated from playoff contention last week in a 17-7 home defeat to Jacksonville. Ryan Tannehill struggled again in this one, throwing for just 146 yards. The rushing attack definitely missed Frank Gore, totalling only 62 yards on 18 carries themselves. Defensively, it’s hard to fault Miami for the loss here. They allowed just 118 total passing yards and under 4 yards per carry. With their season all but over, you have to wonder about their motivation for a trip to the cold of Buffalo. Prediction: Bills -3 With the Dolphins having their season ended last week, I expect Buffalo to be the more motivated team here at home. They’ve looked a much more solid side since Josh Allen returned and I expect their offence to move the ball effectively here. Laying only 3, I’ll happily take the Bills. Bills 24-13 Dolphins.

Green Bay vs Detroit | Monday, December 31, 5 am (AEDT), Lambeau Field
Packers Halftime/Fulltime

Green Bay Packers The Packers managed their first road win of the season last week, a 44-38 overtime tilt over the Jets. Aaron Rodgers was superb in this one, throwing for 442 yards and 2 scores, before adding 2 rushing touchdowns as well. Running Back Jamaal Williams also had a very strong performance, going over 150 total yards and a touchdown. Defensively, the Packers just couldn’t contain Jets QB Sam Darnold. They allowed him to carve them apart for 341 yards and 3 touchdowns. This is a problem area for Green Bay that will need to be remedied this offseason. Detroit Lions The Lions copped another L last week, this time a home drubbing at the hands of the Vikings. The pass defence was atrocious in this one, averaging just 3.7 yards per attempt and leading to a Matt Stafford benching. They weren’t much better on the ground either, totalling just 86 yards all afternoon. Defensively, the Lions had no answer for the Vikings efficient passing attack. They were carved apart by Kirk Cousins to the tune of 253 yards and 2 touchdowns. This doesn’t bode well coming up against Aaron Rodgers at Lambeau this week. Prediction: Packers Halftime/Fulltime Like the game above, the Lions really have nothing to play for in this one. Aaron Rodgers is playing incredibly hard to finish the season and I expect another solid effort from him here. At over a touchdown, the halftime/fulltime bet represents better value. Packers 24-17 Lions.

New England vs New York Jets | Monday, December 31, 5 am (AEDT), Gillette Stadium
Patriots Win 1-13

New England Patriots The Patriots appear to be the frontrunner for the #2 seed in the AFC now after a convincing win over Buffalo last week. This was despite a very poor performance from Tom Brady, who went just 13/24 for 126 yards and 2 interceptions. Sony Michel led a dominant day from the rushing attack that went for 273 yards and 2 scores. Defensively, the Pats were back to their best in this one. They held Josh Allen to just 20/41 passing and forced 2 interceptions. Needing a win here to secure a first round bye, I’m confident you’ll see a motivated New England side here. New York Jets The Jets played out one of the more thrilling games of the season last week, a 44-38 home loss to Green Bay. QB Sam Darnold was excellent in this one, throwing for an impressive 341 yards and 3 touchdowns. The rushing attack couldn’t get going however, totalling just 47 yards. Defensively, the Jets were all over the place. They allowed 540 yards of offence and 5 touchdowns in an awful display. In what will likely be Coach Todd Bowles’ final game, the Jets appear to have at least some building blocks going into next season. Prediction: Patriots 1-13 Whilst I expect New England to win here, the price is definitely inflated. The Patriots defence has been very solid lately and they should easily contain New York here. Brady and Co do enough offensively to win this one by around 10. Patriots 27-17 Jets.

New Orleans vs Carolina | Monday, December 31, 5 am (AEDT), Mercedes-Benz Superdome
No Bet

New Orleans Saints The Saints secured the #1 seed in the NFC last week with a thrilling 31-28 win over Pittsburgh. Drew Brees had another solid day in this one, throwing for 326 yards and a score. The rushing attack oddly couldn’t get going however, totalling just 57 yards on the day, admittedly running for 3 touchdowns in the process. Defensively, New Orleans made a couple of big plays to secure the win. They limited the Pittsburgh rushing attack all afternoon and forced 2 crucial late fumbles. Likely to rest their starters here, this is a tough one to get an early read on. Carolina Panthers The Panthers suffered their 7th straight loss last week, falling 24-10 to Atlanta. QB Taylor Heinicke struggled big time filling in for Cam Newton, averaging just 5.2 yards per attempt and throwing 3 interceptions. RB Christian McCaffrey continued his excellent season with 178 yards from scrimmage. Whilst the Panthers defence continues to fight, this was statistically one of their worst displays of the season. They allowed over 9 yards per attempt and 3 touchdowns in the passing attack, also allowing over 9 yards per rush. After such a disappointing finish, big changes are expected for Carolina his off-season. Prediction: No Bet With Cam Newton out for this one and the Saints resting their starters, there isn’t any line set for this one. As neither team has an incentive to win this game, the best option is to sit it out and look for better opportunities elsewhere.

New York Giants vs Dallas | Monday, December 31, 5 am (AEDT), MetLife Stadium
Under 43

New York Giants The Giants enter this division grudge match at 5-10 after a 1-point loss in Indianapolis last week. QB Eli Manning looked very good in this one, throwing for over 300 yards on 9.4 yards per attempt. The rushing attack really struggled to get going however, averaging just 2.9 yards per carry. Defensively, New York just couldn’t hold off a resurgent Andrew Luck. They allowed 357 passing yards and 2 touchdowns, getting burnt deep several times by T.Y Hilton. In what is always a heated rivalry, look for New York to finish the season strong for what could be Eli’s last game. Dallas Cowboys The Cowboys clinched the NFC East last week with a solid 27-20 home win over the Buccaneers. RB Zeke Elliott has carried this Cowboys offence all season, totalling over 200 yards from scrimmage and 9 touchdowns. Dak Prescott delivered another efficient display last week, completing 20/25 of his passes. Defensively, the Cowboys have emerged as one of the NFL’s premier units. They completely eliminated Tampa’s rushing attack last week, allowing just 2.6 yards per attempt. Having their seeding essentially locked in, Dallas are expected to rest their starters here, which makes the game somewhat difficult to handicap. Prediction: Under 43 With the Cowboys set to rest some starters here I can see the offence struggling to put up points. On a cold New York day with neither side set to be fully motivated, I believe the value is on the under at 43. Giants 24-14 Cowboys.

Tampa Bay vs Atlanta | Monday, December 31, 5 am (AEDT), Raymond James Stadium
Under 51.5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers The Buccaneers enter this one at 5-10 after another loss in Dallas last week. QB Jameis Winston has looked much better of late, throwing for 336 yards and a score in this one. In Receiver Mike Evans, he has one of the NFL’s most underrated pass catchers. Defensively, Tampa did a solid job containing this Cowboys attack. They allowed just 80 yards on the ground and held them to just 152 passing yards. If this level of defensive play was there earlier in the season, Tampa could’ve had a shot at the playoffs. In another game where both sides are out of playoff contention, you have to question their motivation here. Atlanta Falcons The Falcons enter this one at 6-9, having seemingly rebounded after consecutive wins. Matt Ryan led an excellent offensive display last week, throwing for 239 yards and 3 touchdowns. This was complemented nicely by the rushing attack, who averaged 9.2 yards per attempt en route to 194 total yards. On defence, they did a phenomenal job shutting down the Panthers passing attack. They forced 3 interceptions and allowed a mere 5.5 yards per attempt. As one of the biggest disappointments in the NFL this season, you’d have to think the Falcons will be back as contenders next year. Prediction: Under 51.5 Another one of those games where neither side has anything to play for. Each of the last 5 Tampa Bay games has gone under this total, as have 5 of the last 7 Atlanta games. For me, it is set too high for a meaningless end-of-season fixture. Falcons 27-23 Buccaneers.

Houston vs Jacksonville | Monday, December 31, 5 am (AEDT), NRG Stadium
Texans -7

Houston Texans The Texans enter this one off a heartbreaking 32-30 loss to Philadelphia last week. QB Deshaun Watson was fantastic in this one, throwing for 339 yards and 2 scores, before adding 2 rushing touchdowns of his own. DeAndre Hopkins had another great day, going over 100 yards through the air. Defensively, the Texans just couldn’t contain big **** Nick. They allowed 471 yards and 4 touchdowns in a display that pushed them out of the #2 seed. At home against Jacksonville, you’d have to imagine they finish strong here in order to clinch the AFC South. Jacksonville Jaguars The Jaguars got back to winning ways last week with a gritty 17-7 road win over Miami. This was in spite of inept Quarterback play, where they threw for just 118 yards all game. The rushing attack fared somewhat better, going off for 126 yards and a score. Defensively, this was a vintage display from this elite Jags unit. They allowed under 200 total yards of offence and came up with a crucial pick-six. Despite being firmly out of playoff contention, I’m sure they’d love to play spoiler to Houston here. Prediction: Texans -7 This is a game the Texans need to have to guarantee themselves the division title. Against an unmotivated Jacksonville side, Houston is the only logical play here. Especially at 7 or less, lay the home favourite here. Texans 27-14 Jaguars.

Denver vs Los Angeles Chargers | Monday, December 31, 8:25 am (AEDT), Broncos Stadium at Mile High
Broncos +6.5

Denver Broncos The Broncos enter this one at 6-9 after a horrific 27-14 loss in Oakland last week. QB Case Keenum continued his recent struggles, throwing for just 202 yards and 2 interceptions on 37 attempts. This meant a lack of opportunity for Phillip Lindsay in the running game, who had just 10 carries for 46 yards. Defensively, it was a mixed display from the Broncos. Whilst they allowed just 167 passing yards, allowing over 5 yards per carry to Doug Martin really cost them this one. After such a pitiful display, you can expect big changes in Denver this offseason. Los Angeles Chargers The Chargers make the trip to Denver at 11-4 after a disappointing loss to Baltimore in primetime last week. QB Phillip Rivers had one of his worst games of the year, averaging just 4.9 yards per attempt and throwing 2 interceptions. The rushing attack also struggled to get going, totalling just 51 yards all evening. Even the usually stout Chargers defence performed poorly in this one. They gave up 159 yards on the ground and allowed 9.3 yards per attempt from Lamar Jackson. All but locked in to the #5 seed now, the Chargers may not be too motivated for a trip to Denver to play in the altitude. Prediction: Broncos +6.5 I can’t see Oakland upsetting Kansas City, making this game meaningless for the Chargers. In what is likely the last game for Coach Vance Joseph and QB Case Keenum, expect a better effort from Denver in front of their home crowd. 6.5 points is definitely too many here. Chargers 24-20 Broncos.

Kansas City vs Oakland | Monday, December 31, 8:25 am (AEDT), Arrowhead Stadium
Chiefs -13.5

Kansas City Chiefs After an incredible start to the season, the Chiefs have lost 3 of their last 5 games to sit 11-4. This includes consecutive losses to the Chargers and Seahawks. QB Patrick Mahomes was again outstanding last week in defeat, throwing for 273 yards and 3 touchdowns. The rushing attack also had one of their better days in recent weeks, going over 150 yards on 8.1 yards per attempt. Defensively, they had no answers for the Seahawks. They allowed over 210 yards and 3 touchdowns on the ground, in addition to the 271 yards and 3 scores by QB Russell Wilson. With a chance to claim the #1 seed here, expect a hungry and motivated KC side. Oakland Raiders In possibly their last home game in Oakland, the Raiders pulled off a very solid 27-14 win over Denver. RB Doug Martin led the way on offence, going for 107 yards and a touchdown on his 21 carries. Derek Carr had another efficient day, making it 10 straight games without throwing an interception. Defensively, the Raiders did an excellent job in this one. They held Case Keenum to just 5.5 yards per attempt and forced 2 crucial interceptions, limiting Phillip Lindsay to only 46 yards in the process. On a short week into the Eastern time zone, this one is probably a tough ask for Oakland. Prediction: Chiefs -13.5 The Chiefs desperately want that #1 seed and will fight hard to get it. Oakland had their big win last week and won’t be motivated here coming off a cross-country flight on a short week. Laying less than two touchdowns, I’m very confident in KC here. Chiefs 34-17 Raiders.

Los Angeles Rams vs San Francisco | Monday, December 31, 8:25 am (AEDT), Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Under 50

Los Angeles Rams The Rams got back on track last week with a convincing road win in Arizona, taking their record to 12-3 on the year. QB Jared Goff got back to basics here, completing 19/24 passses for 216 yards and a touchdown. RB C.J. Anderson stepped up in the absence of Todd Gurley, going for 167 yards and a score on his 20 carries. Defensively, the Rams were back to their best in this one. They completely limited the Arizona passing attack, holding Josh Rosen to just 87 yards on 12/23 passing. The run defence was also effective, limiting David Johnson to a mere 37 yards. With a 1st round bye on the line here, expect Los Angeles to take care of business at home. San Francisco 49ers The 49ers enter this one at 4-11 after losing a close one at home to Chicago last week. QB Nick Mullens has looked solid as the starter, throwing for 2000 yards and 10 touchdowns to 7 interceptions so far. Tight End George Kittle has been his main weapon of choice, the Pro-Bowler already going over 1200 yards. The 49ers have also looked much more impressive defensively of late. They held the Bears to just 14 points in this one, allowing only 3.2 yards per carry on the ground. With Jimmy G back in the fold next season, they could definitely be a team to watch. Prediction: Under 50 This is a game I expect the Rams defence to show up in. I believe they can contain Nick Mullens and Co through the air, whilst the questionable status of Todd Gurley means LA’s offence struggles. Rams 27-17 49ers.

Minnesota vs Chicago | Monday, December 31, 8:25 am (AEDT), U.S. Bank Stadium
Vikings -5

Minnesota Vikings The Vikings enter this rivalry match at 8-6-1 after a convincing road win over Detroit last week. QB Kirk Cousins had another solid day in this one, going 21/28 for 253 yards and 3 scores. Tight End Kyle Rudolph had himself a day, hauling in 9 grabs for 122 yards and 2 scores. The Terrific Vikings defence was also back to its best in this one. They held the Lions to just 83 rushing yards all afternoon, only allowing 137 passing yards in the process. With Minnesota looking dangerous on both sides of the ball, they could be a very dangerous wildcard side. Needing a win to get into the playoffs, expect a motivated Vikings side here. Chicago Bears The Bears have gone on a very impressive run of 8 wins in 9 games to sit 3rd in the NFC at 11-4. QB Mitchell Trubisky had a bounce back day in San Francisco last week, completing 25/29 passes for 246 yards and a touchdown. Receiver Allen Robinson had another solid day, hauling in 6 catches for 85 yards. Defensively, the Bears front seven continues to be the best in football. They held the 49ers to just 6.3 yards per passing attempt, allowing only 47 rush yards in the process. All but locked into the #3 seed, they may rest some starters in this one. Prediction: Vikings -5 Having predicted the Rams to beat San Francisco, I really don’t see why the Bears would play their starters here. These are two relatively evenly matched teams, with Minnesota having a strong home field and better QB. Laying less than a touchdown, the motivational edge of Minnesota will be too much here. Vikings 27-17 Bears.

Pittsburgh vs Cincinnati | Monday, December 31, 8:25 am (AEDT), Heinz Field
Under 45.5

Pittsburgh Steelers The Steelers enter this at 8-6-1 after a competitive loss in New Orleans last week. QB Ben Roethlisberger had himself a day, throwing for 380 yards and 3 touchdowns. Antonio Brown was at his phenomenal best, hauling in 14 catches for 185 yards and 2 scores. The Steelers defence was also solid but unspectacular. They did a great job on the ground, holding the Saints to just 57 yards on 19 carries. The pass defence did struggle however, conceding 313 yards, a touchdown, and some (dubious) pass-interference penalties. As things stand, Pittsburgh would be on the outside of the playoffs looking in. Cincinnati Bengals The Bengals suffered their 6th defeat in their last 7 games last week, a 26-18 loss in Cleveland. The passing offence struggled yet again in this one, totalling just 133 yards. Joe Mixon continued his solid season, going over 1300 total yards on the campaign. Defensively, the Bengals were an absolute disaster in this one. They were torched by Baker Mayfield and Jarvis Landry, allowing 347 yards and 3 touchdowns. Given another incredibly disappointing finish to the season, you have to wonder if Marvin Lewis keeps his job. With their season already over, I can see this one being ugly. Prediction: Under 45.5 With how miserable the Bengals have been offensively of late, I don’t see them enjoying success against this improving Pittsburgh defence. With the 14.5-point spread being too high, I’ll take my chances under 45.5, a key number in the totals game. Steelers 30-13 Bengals.

Seattle vs Arizona | Monday, December 31, 8:25 am (AEDT), Century Link Field
No Bet

Seattle Seahawks The Seahawks clinched a playoff spot last week with an excellent 38-31 home win over Kansas City. Russell Wilson continued his fantastic season, throwing for 271 yards and 3 touchdowns. This was balanced nicely by the rushing attack, who went over 200 total yards and 2 scores. Defensively, the Seahawks did an adequate job containing the explosive Chiefs offence. Whilst the rush defence somewhat struggled, they allowed a respectable 265 passing yards on 6.8 yards per attempt. Arizona Cardinals The Cardinals continue to look like the worst team in football, losing 6 of their last 7 games to sit 3-12. QB Josh Rosen was again dreadful, completing 12/23 passes for just 87 yards. Receiver Larry Fitzgerald continues to fight the good fight, hauling in 6 catches for 53 yards. Defensively, the Cardinals had no answer for the dynamic Rams rushing attack. They allowed 269 yards and 3 touchdowns, whilst QB Jared Goff methodically picked them off for 9 yards per attempt. Prediction: No Bet Another game with no meaning for either side where a ton of starters could be rested. This is one to stay away from and enjoy the better value elsewhere.

Washington vs Philadelphia | Monday, December 31, 8:25 am (AEDT), FedEx Field
Eagles -6.5

Washington Redskins The 7-8 Redskins had their playoff hopes dashed last week in a road loss to the Titans. The passing game struggled again in this one, totalling just 131 yards and 2 interceptions. Adrian Peterson continued his solid season in the rushing game, going for 119 yards on his 26 carries. Defensively, you can’t fault the effort the Redskins put forward in this one. They held the Titans under 100 yards on the ground and under 200 yards in the air, the last-minute pick-six undoing all their hard work. With their season over, I’m sure the Redskins and their fans would love to play spoiler in this one. Philadelphia Eagles The Eagles kept their playoff hopes alive last week with a huge 32-30 win over the Texans. Big **** Nick was at his brilliant best, going for 471 yards and 4 touchdowns. Tight End Zach Ertz continued his solid campaign, hauling in 12 catches for 110 yards and 2 scores. Defensively, it was a decent afternoon from the Eagles. Whilst they effectively limited the Texans rush attack, they had no answer for Deshaun Watson, who threw for 339 yards and 2 scores. Needing a win to remain in the playoff race, I’m expecting a motivated Philly side in this one. Prediction: Eagles -6.5 You’re paying a premium for Philadelphia here but they’re the only team playing for something here. Expect another solid day from big **** Nick, whilst the Eagles D-Line shuts down the Washington offence. Laying less than a touchdown, the value is still there. Eagles 30-17 Redskins.

best bet
Baltimore vs Cleveland | Monday, December 31, 8:25 am (AEDT), M&T Bank Stadium
Ravens -5.5

Baltimore Ravens The Ravens come into this one off their 5th win in their last 6, a crucial road victory over the Chargers on Saturday Night Football. QB Lamar Jackson had another solid day, throwing for over 200 yards and a score on 9.3 yards per attempt. Gus Edwards led another fantastic day from the rushing attack, totalling 92 yards on his 14 carries. It was another masterful display from the Ravens defence that ultimately sealed this one. They allowed just 147 passing yards, forcing 2 interceptions in the process. The rush defence was just as good, allowing just 51 yards on 16 carries. With the division title on the line, expect a motivated Baltimore effort here. Cleveland Browns The Browns enter this one a respectable 7-7-1, winning their 5th in 6 last week against the Bengals. QB Baker Mayfield had another outstanding performance, throwing for 284 yards and 3 touchdowns. Nick Chubb continued his solid season on the ground, adding a further 112 yards on his 19 carries. The Browns excellent pass defence also held the Bengals firmly in check. They allowed just 107 yards through the air in a truly dominant display. With their versatility on the ground game, the Ravens will present a much more unique defensive challenge. Despite a very strong finish to the season, I’m not sure how motivated Cleveland will be here. Prediction: Ravens -5.5 Are the Browns really going to be motivated to win this and help the Steelers get into the playoffs? I just don’t see it. Baltimore should be able to run on this Browns defence and control the clock. On the other side, I expect their defence to get consistent pressure on Mayfield. Ravens 24-13 Browns.