With the College Football regular season now over, we’re welcomed with our annual slate of weekend NFL fixtures. The season commences with two very exciting matchups, both of which have strong playoff ramifications. Our first match has Houston looking to strengthen their grip on the AFC North as they travel to New York to face the Jets. This is followed in Denver as the Broncos play host to a resurgent Browns side. Let’s take a look at our best bets in each of these two games.
MetLife Stadium
Where to Watch: ESPN, 7 Mate or NFL Game Pass, Sunday 8:30 am
New York Jets
The Jets enter this matchup at 4-9, registering a road win in Buffalo last week after suffering 6 straight defeats. QB Sam Darnold finally returned from injury and provided a significant upgrade over Josh McCown. Whilst it was nothing too outlandish, Darnold was efficient in completing 16/24 throws for 170 yards and a touchdown. Receiver Robby Anderson appears to be coming on of late, totalling 76 yards and a touchdown last week.
Despite their offensive struggles this season, the Jets defence has been largely solid. They’ve only allowed 30 points or more 3 times, remaining competitive throughout. The pass defence was particularly excellent last week, holding Buffalo to only 5.6 yards per attempt and grabbing 2 interceptions. Whilst they did allow 102 rushing yards to QB Josh Allen, the Running Backs were held to just 74 yards.
Houston Texans
The Texans make the trip to Houston at 9-4, losing at home to Indianapolis last week after 9 straight wins. QB Deshaun Watson has had an excellent sophomore season, throwing for 3300 yards and 22 touchdowns to just 9 interceptions. Receiver DeAndre Hopkins is having another excellent campaign, hauling in 84 catches for 1151 yards and 9 scores. In Lamar Miller, The Texans also have a solid dual-threat Running Back that has totalled just under 1100 yards this season.
Defensively, Houston have also been very strong this season. In fact, they’ve only allowed more than 27 points in a game once this season. The strength of this unit is definitely their pass defence. In J.J. Watt, Jadeveon Clowney, and Whitney Mercilus, the Texans have one of the best pass-rushing trios in the league. Safety Tyrann Mathieu and Cornerback Kareem Jackson also lead a hard-hitting and opportunistic secondary.
Prediction: Texans -6
Ultimately, I think Houston are far and away the more talented team in this one. On their 9-game winning streak, the Texans covered this line on 6 occasions. The matchup I like the most for them here is their defence going up against the struggling Jets offence. Darnold still isn’t 100% after his injury and I’m expecting a big day from the Houston pass rush here. Offensively, I think Watson’s mobility will be huge in this one. Josh Allen managed 100 yards on the Jets defence last week and Watson is definitely the more talented rusher. Laying only 6 points, I’m very comfortable taking Houston on the road.
Total: Over 41
Whilst it is a short week for these two teams, I think the total is far too low here. The Texans have eclipsed this in 5 of their last 6 games, whilst the Jets have done it in 3 of their last 4. Deshaun Watson’s dual-threat ability gives the Texans offence a strong element of consistency. In DeAndre Hopkins and Demaryius Thomas, he has an excellent receiving duo that can take full advantage. Darnold has significantly outperformed McCown this season and I think he can do just enough to take this total over.
Score Prediction: Houston Texans 27-20 New York Jets
Sports Authority Field at Mile High
Where to Watch: ESPN, 7 Mate or NFL Game Pass, Sunday 12:20 pm
Denver Broncos
The 6-7 Broncos effectively had their season ended in San Francisco last week, enduring a brutal 20-14 loss to the 49ers. QB Case Keenum was awful in this one, averaging just 4.4 yards on his 40 pass attempts. The rushing attack couldn’t get all that much going either, averaging 3.8 yards per attempt. This offence desperately misses veteran Receiver Emmanuel Sanders, who is hoped to return here.
Defensively, the Broncos delivered an average performance. They did a strong job containing the 49ers on the ground, allowing just 2.8 yards per carry. Preventing the aerial attack was a huge problem as they allowed QB Nick Mullens to throw for 332 yards and 2 scores. They also did a terrible job trying to contain Tight End George Kittle, who had 210 yards and a touchdown in the first half alone.
Cleveland Browns
The Browns have looked resurgent since the Hue Jackson firing, comfortably winning 3 of their last 4 games. QB Baker Mayfield delivered another solid performance last week, completing 18/22 passes for 238 yards and a score. In Jarvis Landry, he has a legitimate #1 wideout to throw to. Rookie RB Nick Chubb has also looked like a revelation this season, averaging an impressive 5.3 yards per carry.
I’d be remiss not to mention the excellent Browns defence that has held opponents to 21 or less points in 7 games this season. Pass rushers Myles Garrett and Larry Ogunjobi have formed an excellent duo up front that strikes fear into opposing offensive linemen. Their strong rushing defence was also on full display last week as they held a strong Panthers attack to just 3.8 yards per attempt.
Prediction: Browns +3.5
After having their season essentially ended last week, I’m not sure how motivated the Broncos will be for this one. Cleveland enter this one in their best form of the season and will assuredly be looking to show out in primetime. I really like the matchup their defence has with a Broncos passing attack that has struggled all season. Cleveland has every chance of winning this outright, although I’ll happily take the 3.5 points for extra protection.
Score Prediction: Cleveland Browns 23-20 Denver Broncos