In the first of our NBA division betting updates, we take a look at what is widely considered to be the most competitive division in the NBA, the Northwest. This division featured 5 very solid teams last season, all of whom reached at least 46 wins. After the first third of the season, a lot of pre-season expectations have shifted. Utah were widely considered division favourites, yet now find themselves with a losing record at 14-15. Conversely, Oklahoma City and Denver have had outstanding campaigns and occupy the top 2 positions out West. In a very competitive market, let’s take a look at our best bets on the board.
Oklahoma City Thunder at $2.85
Oklahoma City have rebounded from a slow start to the season, winning 17 of their last 22 games to sit second in the West. In Russell Westbrook, Paul George, and Steven Adams, they have 3 legit stars who are amongst the top 5 at their respective positions. Westbrook has returned from his injury in excellent form, currently averaging 22 points, 10.3 rebound, and 10 assists. George has carried the offence all season, averaging an impressive 24.3 points per game. With the Jazz struggling and the Nuggets battling a host of injuries at the moment, OKC has every chance of claiming top spot in the Northwest.
Denver Nuggets at $3.30
There weren’t many NBA fans who expected the Nuggets to be 1st in the West after the first third of the season. At 18-9, this is exactly where they find themselves. Featuring one of the most well-rounded starting fives in the league, their ability to overcome injuries has been very impressive. Nikola Jokic has established himself as one of the NBA’s premier Centers, averaging 17 points, 10 boards, and 7.5 assists per night. Gary Harris and Jamal Murray also combine to form one of the association’s best young backcourts. With a host of injuries at the moment, this is the point at which I can see OKC pulling ahead.
Portland Trail Blazers at $5
After winning the Northwest division in 2017/18, the Blazers have gotten off to a middling start this season. They currently sit at 15-13, good enough for 3rd place in the division. Point Guard Damian Lillard is having another outstanding season, averaging 27 points, 6 assists, and 5 rebounds. Shooting Guard CJ McCollum is an excellent complementary piece, averaging 22 points and 4 boards of his own. That said, I don’t think Portland has the talent necessary to repeat as division title winners. They should end up at around 45 wins, which just won’t be enough with how strong OKC and Denver are.
Utah Jazz at $6
My pre-season favourites to take home this title, the Jazz have struggled to a 14-15 record so far. This is despite very solid play from Center Rudy Gobert, who is currently averaging 14.6 points and 12.2 rebounds per game. Donovan Mitchell appears to be in better form of late, bringing his season average to 20.8 points. The excellent defence that saw the Jazz surge in the second half last season just hasn’t been there so far. The good news is that they have only 4 games to make up the rest of the way. With the depth and versatility of this roster, they’re my dark horse to take out this crown at $6.
Minnesota Timberwolves at $9
After a disastrous start to the season, the Minnesota Timberwolves have been much more competitive since trading away Jimmy Butler. They currently find themselves a respectable 13-15, which is enough for last place in this very competitive division. Center Karl-Anthony Towns is having another fantastic season, currently averaging an efficient 21.5 points and 11.8 rebounds per contest. Former MVP Derrick Rose is also having a career renaissance, averaging 18.5 points and 4.5 rebounds on 48% shooting from 3. Despite the contributions of these two, I just don’t think the Timberwolves have the ceiling to achieve the division title. The most likely outcome for this team is 35-40 wins and a finish just outside the playoffs.
Best Bet: Thunder at $2.85
At $2.85, it’s tough to overlook the Thunder as division titles here. If you’re stacking up the best players in the division, both Russell Westbrook and Paul George rank at the top of the list. Stephen Adams is also a very solid Center that can capably compete with opponents like Nikola Jokic and Rudy Gobert. GM Sam Presti made another solid off-season move, getting rid of Melo’s contract for Dennis Schroder. Schroder has provided OKC with the backup Point Guard that they desperately needed, averaging 17 points and 5 assists so far. With the return of Andre Roberson set to improve their already elite defence, the Thunder are definitely my best bet here.
Value Bet: Jazz at $6
After backing them in the pre-season, I can’t help but feel as though the Jazz are undervalued at $6. They boast one of the NBA’s best homecourt advantages, which is always good for a few extra wins each season. Similarly, they have one of the deepest and most versatile rosters in the NBA. Rudy Gobert is an excellent Center that can match up with anybody. Similarly, a wing rotation of Ingles, Mitchell, and Crowder provides great two-way versatility. The thing that gives me the most confidence about Utah is their excellent second-half of the season. That they were capable of rattling off so many consecutive wins last season makes me think they can do it again and claim top spot if OKC falters.