With the first third of the NBA season now complete, we now have a much better idea of where each team stands. We also have a much better idea of the most likely players to win end-of-season awards, including MVP. At this early point of the season, I think there are four clear contenders that have emerged for MVP. In betting order, they are Giannis Antetokounmpo, LeBron James, Stephen Curry, and Kawhi Leonard. Each of these players has had a tremendous first third of the season and plays on one of the NBA’s premier franchises. This article will take a look at each of their seasons so far, providing our best bets in the process.
Giannis Antetokounmpo at $3
The pre-season favourite for MVP, Giannis is still considered by punters to be the most likely to win the award. Milwaukee have gotten off to one of the best starts in the NBA and currently boast the association’s best plus minus. Giannis has been well and truly at the center of that, pouring in 26.5 points per game on 57% shooting. One of the most complete players in the league, Giannis is also averaging 13.3 boards and 6 assists per night.
A beast on the defensive end of the court, Antetokounmpo is good for 1.3 blocks and 1.5 steals per night. His athleticism gives him an edge over almost all opponents and his relentless ability to get to the rim results in consistent and efficient production. The case for him winning the award is also very clear. He is currently well and truly the star player on a team that currently occupies 2nd in the East. If this holds, he has every chance of winning the award.
LeBron James at $4
After a slow start to the season, the Lakers have won 6 of their last 7 games to sit 17-10. LeBron James has been at the forefront of this upswing, currently leading the team in points, rebounds, and assists. It was feared that LeBron might slow down in his 16th season, although he is having another excellent campaign. From a scoring perspective, he is pouring in a consistent 28 points per night. This has also been rather efficient, buoyed by averages of 52% from the field and 37% from 3.
Like Giannis, LeBron’s impact isn’t just on the scoring end. He is providing excellent production in other areas, currently averaging 7.7 rebounds and 7.1 assists. When he’s locked in, he also remains one of the association’s premier defenders, currently averaging 1.3 steals per game. The narrative is also clear for him to take home the award. In a wide-open Western Conference, the Lakers have every chance of the #2 seed, which LeBron would undoubtedly get huge credit for. This would also mark a historic 5th MVP for James.
Stephen Curry at $5
If he’d been healthy all season, Steph Curry would currently be the favourite for this award. Curry is having a phenomenal offensive campaign so far, currently averaging 30 points per game. This has also been on incredible efficiency, with Curry shooting over 50% from the field, 50% from 3, and 93% from the line. He’s been an effective contributor in other areas, averaging an effective 5.8 assists and 5.2 rebounds per game.
There is also a definite narrative for Curry to win this award. If Golden State are simply so much better than everyone else with him in the lineup, he may just get it by default. Steph has looked like clearly the best player in the NBA this season and plays on the league’s best team. It seems the only thing that could stand in his way is his recurring injury problems.
Kawhi Leonard at $7
At this number, I think Kawhi is quite undervalued to take home MVP. Whilst there were off-season questions surrounding his health, he’s been as good as ever this season. He’s been excellent offensively, pouring in an efficient 26 points per game. A very complete basketball player, Kawhi is also averaging 8.3 boards and 3 assists per night.
Regarded as one of the best defenders in NBA history, Kawhi is also doing an excellent job on the less talked about area of the court. He is currently averaging a shade under 2 steals per game, defending the best opposing wing threat each night. There is also a very clear narrative for Kawhi to take this one home. The Raptors currently enjoy the clear best record in the NBA and have a very strong net rating. If Kawhi can play 70+ games and both of these numbers hold, he has every chance of taking home the award.
Best Bet: Giannis Antetokounmpo at $3
Giannis has remained the favourite for the award and for very good reason. Not only is he on one of the NBA’s premier teams, but his stat line is outstanding. 26.5 points, 13.3 rebounds, and 6 assists show just how well-rounded he is. Ironically, he also has an advantage as the least established of the 4 players on this list. Both Steph and LeBron have multiple MVP’s and rings, whilst Kawhi has a finals MVP of his own. Whilst the others may slightly take their foot off the gas to prepare for the post-season, I expect Giannis to continue gunning all season.
Value Bet: Kawhi Leonard at $7
A common theme of the MVP award is that it has gone to the best player on the best regular season team in the league. This has held largely true in recent years, apart from Russell Westbrook in 16/17. I can see Golden State opting for rest down the stretch that sees Toronto hold on to the best record in the league. Kawhi is having an excellent campaign, providing elite production on both ends. If he can play 65-70 games and the Raptors eclipse 60 wins (both very realistic), I think he is great value at $7.